Canada wheat production decline is becoming a central concern for the global grain market in 2026/27. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), Canada’s major grain crops are forecast to fall by approximately 6% in the upcoming marketing year. Furthermore, the drop in wheat output is expected to be even steeper, reaching 10% compared to the previous record season. This outlook signals important shifts in Canadian agricultural priorities and export flows.
Canada Wheat Production Decline: 10% Drop Forecast for 2026/27
In the 2026/27 marketing year, the production of Canada’s major grain crops — wheat, corn, barley, and oats — is projected to decline by approximately 6%. The FAS released this forecast, attributing the trend to an expected decline in yields.
Specifically, wheat production (including durum varieties) is forecast at 36.2 million tons. This represents a 10% decrease compared to the previous season. Moreover, this decline follows record-breaking figures in the 2025/26 marketing year, when the total harvest surged by 11% to reach 39.9 million tons. Therefore, the upcoming drop reflects a return in yields to the three-year average.
Farmers Shift to More Profitable Crops
Furthermore, a slight reduction in wheat planted area is anticipated. According to FAS estimates, farmers are shifting their focus to more profitable crops. Specifically, they are moving toward:
- soybeans in the provinces of Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec
- barley and canola in Saskatchewan and Alberta
This shift is driven by substantial wheat inventories and lower wheat prices relative to alternative crops. As a result, amidst a strengthening Canadian dollar and reduced supply from smaller planted areas, Canadian wheat exports in the 2026/27 marketing year could fall by 4% to 28.5 million tons. Additionally, a similar situation is expected in the barley market. Production is also forecast to contract by 10% following the record harvest of the previous season.
Corn Output Rises as Wheat Falls
Conversely, corn production is exhibiting the opposite trend. Output is expected to rise by nearly 6%, reaching 15.7 million tons. This growth is driven by an expansion in planted area and improved soil moisture levels. In particular, in the province of Ontario, which accounts for approximately 64% of Canada’s corn production, weather conditions have improved significantly thanks to increased precipitation.
Furthermore, an increase in domestic corn supply will drive growth in consumption. Consumption is projected to rise by 6% — to 15.5 million tons — driven by demand from the feed and industrial sectors. At the same time, Canadian corn imports are forecast to decline by 8%, totaling approximately 1.7 million tons in the 2026/27 marketing year.
Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
