Dry weather conditions are intensifying across Brazil’s key growing areas, and Brazil corn production risks are now firmly in focus for global grain market analysts. The 2025/26 corn harvest in Brazil remains estimated at 134 million tonnes. However, analysts are increasingly pointing to growing weather risks that could undermine that forecast. The main concern is the ongoing decrease in rainfall across the southern regions where the second crop, known as the safrinha, is produced.
Uneven Rainfall Distribution Adds to Crop Stress
Recent rainfall has concentrated in the western and northern regions of the country. This includes western Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul. Meanwhile, the central and eastern regions remain noticeably drier. Furthermore, higher temperatures in those areas are increasing crop stress and accelerating moisture loss from soils.
To ensure normal yields in central Brazil, additional rainfall is needed until at least mid-May. In later-planted regions, moreover, sufficient moisture is required until early June. Otherwise, the risk of yield reductions will increase considerably across the affected zones.
Brazil Corn Production Risks: Up to 40% of Safrinha Crop Under Threat
Experts estimate that approximately 40% of the safrinha crop could suffer from moisture deficiency. This risk applies especially to regions with late planting dates. The greatest risks, consequently, are observed in the following states:
- Paraná
- São Paulo
- Goiás
- Minas Gerais
- Mato Grosso do Sul
In the event of unfavorable weather, potential losses could range from 4 to 6 million tons. These losses could, nevertheless, be partially offset by higher yields in northern regions. Ultimately, however, the outcome will depend on further weather developments in the coming weeks. The situation is particularly significant for the animal feed sector globally, since Brazilian safrinha corn is a critical source of feed grain for international markets.
Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)