The global vegetable oil market is reaching new milestones in 2026, and the soybean oil biofuel record is at the heart of this shift. According to Oil World, global soybean oil production increased by 1.2 million tonnes between October 2025 and March 2026, compared to last year’s level. This growth is driven by the rapid expansion of biofuel production, primarily in the United States. There, the share of soybean oil in total soybean processing has reached new historic highs.
Record Forecast: Global Soybean Oil Output Raised to 70.4 Million Tonnes
Experts raised their forecast for global soybean oil production in the 2025/26 season to a record 70.4 million tonnes. This represents an upward revision of 0.5 million tonnes from the March forecast, and stands 1.9 million tonnes higher than the previous year. The main driver behind this forecast revision was the United States. There, a rapid increase in soybean processing offsets lower production volumes of vegetable oils from other crops.
Global consumption, moreover, is growing even faster. It is potentially increasing by 2.4 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season. Of that total, 1.4 million tonnes will come from the United States alone. In the United States, soybean oil consumption already increased by 600,000 tons in October 2025–March 2026. Furthermore, an additional increase of 800,000 tons is expected in April–September.
Soybean Oil Biofuel Record Driven by US Renewable Fuel Standard Program
This consumption surge is primarily due to soybean oil remaining a key feedstock for biofuel production under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program. Consequently, soybean oil inventories in the United States reached 1.18 million tons at the beginning of March 2026. That is the highest inventory level in more than 10 years. This is, however, largely due to the delay in announcing the RFS parameters for 2026. Nevertheless, strong consumption expected in the second half of the season will exceed production. As a result, inventories will begin to decline.
Declining Soybean Oil Exports Reflect Surging Domestic Demand
Due to increased domestic consumption in producing countries, soybean oil exports are declining. In October–March, global exports already decreased by 300,000 tons compared to last year. Additionally, a further decrease of 500,000 tons is expected in April–September. Overall, this trend illustrates how the soybean oil biofuel record is fundamentally reshaping global trade flows, redirecting volumes that previously moved on international markets toward domestic energy uses instead.
Source: APKinform (Ukraine)