Source: Zol.ru (Russia)
Strategie Grains’ latest forecast paints a promising picture for European grain harvests. Due to favorable weather conditions, both wheat and barley production are expected to surpass previous estimates. In fact, this updated report details a significant increase. The improved outlook signals a positive trend for the EU grain market.
Wheat Production Sees a Notable Boost
Strategie Grains now projects the 2024 soft wheat harvest at 124.3 million tonnes. Therefore, this is a substantial increase from the previous estimate of 120.2 million tonnes. This revision reflects improved yield expectations across key growing regions. Furthermore, higher yields are attributed to beneficial rainfall and sunshine during crucial growth stages. The current estimate is still slightly below the 126.4 million tonnes harvested in 2023. Moreover, the anticipated increase provides optimism for ample supply. Durum wheat forecasts remain unchanged at 7.4 million tonnes.
Barley Bounces Back
The barley harvest is also looking brighter. Strategie Grains forecasts a total barley harvest of 54.7 million tonnes. In addition, this marks an increase from the prior forecast of 53.1 million tonnes. In particular, spring barley production is expected to drive this growth. The report highlights improved conditions for spring barley development. Additionally, the 2023 barley harvest amounted to 47.1 million tonnes. Thus, the new forecast represents a significant year-over-year increase.
Strategie Grains EU Grain Harvest Forecast: Corn and Other Grains
However, the outlook for corn is less optimistic. The corn harvest forecast has been lowered to 59.8 million tonnes. This is down from the previous estimate of 61.5 million tonnes. Dry conditions in some regions have negatively impacted corn yields. Furthermore, the 2023 corn harvest was 64.2 million tonnes. Grain corn imports for the 2024/25 season are projected to reach 19.8 million tonnes. On the other hand, this represents an increase from the 19.3 million tonnes imported in 2023/24.
Here’s a summary of the key figures:
- Soft Wheat: 124.3 million tonnes (up from 120.2 million tonnes)
- Durum Wheat: 7.4 million tonnes (unchanged)
- Total Barley: 54.7 million tonnes (up from 53.1 million tonnes)
- Corn: 59.8 million tonnes (down from 61.5 million tonnes)
- Grain Corn Imports (2024/25): 19.8 million tonnes (up from 19.3 million tonnes in 2023/24)
In conclusion, while some crops face challenges, the overall outlook for the EU grain harvest is positive, especially for wheat and barley. These favorable forecasts could impact grain prices. Though, that depends on global demand and other market factors.