Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
South Africa maintains a strong position in the regional and global corn market thanks to a series of bumper harvests. Production in the 2026/27 marketing year is projected at 16.1 million tonnes. Specifically, this is according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Amid significant carryover stocks exceeding 2 million tonnes and an expected harvest of 16.6 million tonnes in 2025/26 (up from 17.2 million tonnes in 2024/25), the domestic maize price environment will remain bearish in 2026. The FAS notes that this will constrain the expansion of planting area in the 2026/27 season.
Market Dynamics and Export Outlook
Over the past seven years, the country’s maize acreage has remained stable at approximately 3 million hectares. Yield growth is being driven by advances in breeding, the use of modern agrochemicals, and precision farming technologies.
Over the past five marketing years, South Africa exported 15.6 million tonnes of maize, averaging 3.1 million tonnes annually. Of this volume, 9.5 million tonnes was yellow maize and 6.1 million tonnes was white maize. Exports span over 25 countries. Additionally, neighboring Zimbabwe remains the largest importer (588,000 tonnes).
In 2026/27, exports are projected to decline by almost 22%, to 1.8 million tonnes. This compares with 2.3 million tonnes the year before. Consequently, this is primarily due to an expected decline in commercial production while domestic demand remains stable.
Domestic consumption of maize, including white and yellow varieties, is estimated at 14.5 million tonnes in 2026/27. That compares with 14.2 million tonnes the year before. Yellow maize is primarily used in the feed industry. It serves as a key component of rations, primarily in poultry production.
South Africa Corn Production: Storage and Wheat Sector
FAS estimates that ending stocks will stabilize at above 2 million tonnes for the last three marketing years. This is equivalent to approximately two months of commercial consumption. Thus, this indicates a market recovery following the 2023/24 dry season.
South Africa’s grain and oilseed storage capacity exceeds 20 million tonnes. Infrastructure includes both traditional concrete elevators and flexible storage systems – bunkers, silo bags, and metal silos – including at the farm level.
Unlike several other southern African countries, government intervention in the maize market in South Africa is minimal. For instance, there are no government reserves or mandatory stock levels.
Wheat remains the second-most important grain crop after maize. With weak economic growth, population growth is the key driver of increased consumption.
Wheat acreage has remained at approximately 500,000 hectares over the past decade. However, expansion is limited by price pressure, competition from alternative crops, and imports.
Wheat production in 2026/27 is projected at 1.94 million tonnes (compared to 1.89 million tonnes the previous year). Meanwhile, imports of approximately 2.2 million tonnes cover total demand, estimated at 3.9 million tonnes. The main suppliers are Australia, Russia, Lithuania, and the United States.
Most of the country’s wheat is processed into flour for bakery products. That remains a key consumption segment. Further diversification of the wheat processing market is expected. Nevertheless, bread will retain its dominant position for the foreseeable future.