Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
According to consulting firm Safras & Mercado, Brazil, the world’s largest sugar producer and exporter, is likely to reduce supplies by 14.2% in the 2026/27 season, starting in April. Specifically, sugar mills are shifting more cane to ethanol production due to high energy prices.
Total supplies, including both the central-south and northeastern regions of the country, are estimated at 29 million tonnes. In comparison, this is down from 33.8 million tonnes in 2025/26.
Production Decline Follows Brazil Sugar Export Drop
The shift in focus to ethanol is also expected to impact overall sugar production. The consulting firm forecasts that Brazilian sugar production in 2026/27 will fall to 40.3 million tonnes. That compares with 43.5 million tonnes in the previous season.
Meanwhile, ethanol production is expected to increase significantly. Total production, including corn fuel, is projected to increase by 10.7% to 42.58 billion liters.
Energy Prices Drive Production Shift
Brazil sugar export drop reflects how higher energy prices are influencing production decisions. Consequently, producers prioritize ethanol over sugar next season.