Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
The potential for grain exports from Russia in this agricultural year (July 2024-June 2025) is 22-23 million tons lower than last year, so the export quota (which is introduced annually from February 15 to June 30) could fall to zero. However, despite this decline, Russia will retain its leading position in the global wheat market, according to Vladimir Petrichenko, General Director of the Russian company ProZerno.
“The export potential is not bad despite the drop in the grain harvest this year, but it is lower than last year at 22 million tons, perhaps even 23 million tons. Such a colossal drop this season is pretty obvious. It is already slightly noticeable, but insignificant,” Petrichenko said at the XVI Congress of Flour and Grain Milling Enterprises of Russia in Moscow on Thursday.
According to him, export rates “sometimes show the ‘Stakhanov indicators’, but they will decline”. The expert estimates grain exports this agricultural year at 48.7 million tons.
Last year, exports amounted to 72.2 million tons, including 54.1 million tons of wheat, according to the Ministry of Agriculture.
At the same time, Petrichenko pointed out that the most realistic estimate of deliveries abroad depends on the extent to which the intervention fund is “unpacked”. “At the moment, there are about 4 million tons in it, which should be put on the market to ensure an export potential of 48-49 million tons. If this does not happen, there will be a further shortfall of 3-4 million tons,” he said.
According to the expert, commodity intervention (sale of grain from the intervention fund) could increase in December/January.
According to his forecast, wheat exports could reach 40.4 million tons this agricultural year. “The potential is almost 12 million tons lower (compared to last year’s exports, which he estimates at 52.2 million tons), although we will still remain the number one wheat supplier in the world,” the expert stressed.
Barley and maize exports will be insignificant in the new season. “Barley will be the first to run out, as it is already difficult to find it for export. Corn exports could stop in December – there will be no commercial supplies,” Petrichenko believes. He did not rule out that the quota for rf grain exports could be zero this season. “Let’s see, probably we will see this in a certain perspective,” he said.