Source: Zerno On-Line (Russia)
Mexico corn production decline 2026/27 is projected amid challenging market conditions. Specifically, rising costs, excess inventories, and a weak price environment are constraining planting decisions. Furthermore, this increases the country’s dependence on imports.
Corn production in Mexico in the 2026/27 marketing year will drop amid rising input costs. Additionally, expectedly low commodity prices hurt farmer margins. Moreover, significant carryover stocks of white corn from the 2025/26 harvest add pressure, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).
Mexico Corn Production Decline 2026/27: Official Forecasts
According to a March 13 report, corn production in the country will decline 3% year-on-year to 24.5 million tons. Furthermore, this is 7% below the 10-year average. Meanwhile, increased white corn production in 2025/26 has created surplus. Additionally, continued high imports of yellow and white corn from the United States add to domestic supply. Consequently, producer purchase prices have fallen below their cost of production.
Corn imports in the 2026/27 season are expected to increase by 1% to 26.8 million tonnes. Furthermore, the United States will remain the primary supplier. Specifically, it accounts for over 99% of supplies due to competitive pricing, advanced logistics, and significant export potential.
Feed Demand and Consumption Trends
Total corn consumption in 2026/27 is projected at 52.5 million tonnes. Moreover, this is up 2% from the previous period. Additionally, this growth will be driven by increased demand for yellow corn from the feed and livestock industries. Furthermore, Mexico is the fifth-largest feed producer in the world. According to the National Association of the Feed Industry (CONAFAB), feed production increased by 2% in 2025 to 41.8 million tonnes.
Consumption of white corn for tortilla production is expected to remain stable. Moreover, this reflects its key role in the population’s diet. Despite a decline in per capita consumption in recent years, aggregate demand will be supported by population growth. Additionally, FAS notes that grain demand will generally remain robust in 2026. Furthermore, this is driven by expected population growth (to nearly 133 million people), increased poultry and pork production, and positive macroeconomic expectations.
The Central Bank of Mexico recently revised its 2026 economic growth forecast upward to 1.6%. Moreover, officials cite expanding domestic consumption and rising exports.
Mexico is expected to maintain its status as a major importer of staple grains – corn, wheat, rice, and sorghum. Furthermore, imports are expected to increase further in the 2026/27 season amid limited domestic production capacity.
Wheat production is forecast at 2.1 million tonnes. Moreover, this is up 20% from the previous year. Additionally, this increase is driven by the partial restoration of reservoir water levels. Consequently, this will allow for a 2% increase in planted area to 390,000 hectares.
Wheat imports are expected to increase by 7% to 6.2 million tonnes. Furthermore, this is driven by rising domestic demand and miller stockpiling. Meanwhile, the United States remains the primary supplier, followed by Canada.
Wheat consumption in 2025/26 is estimated to remain stable at 7.8 million tonnes
Moreover, a subsequent 1% increase is expected in 2026/27. According to FAS, Mexico’s total milling capacity in 2025 was 11.2 million tonnes. Furthermore, this is distributed among 95 mills.
The National Chamber of Millers (CANIMOLT) estimates that durum wheat production was 672,200 tonnes. Meanwhile, soft wheat production was 397,700 tonnes. Despite a partial recovery in planted area, durum wheat production remains 48% below the five-year average. Furthermore, soft wheat production is 38% above this level.
Sorghum production is showing a recovery. Specifically, in the 2026/27 season, it will increase by 21% to 3.5 million tonnes due to improved weather conditions following drought and soil moisture deficits. However, even with this increase, the figure remains 18% below the five-year average.
Sorghum imports, on the other hand, will decrease by 38% to 500,000 tonnes. Furthermore, this is driven by increased domestic production and a market preference for yellow corn.
As noted by FAS, the displacement of sorghum by yellow corn in most feed formulations continues. Moreover, this reduces demand and puts pressure on farmgate prices. Consequently, this limits the expansion of planted acreage.
Rice production in 2026/27 will increase by 4% to 196,000 tonnes due to improved access to financial instruments for producers. Meanwhile, imports will grow by 4% to 880,000 tonnes. Furthermore, this is driven by increased consumption driven by population growth.