Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
The April edition of the JRC MARS bulletin from the European Commission indicates that yield projections for wheat, barley, maize, and rapeseed within the EU have either remained stable or improved compared to the initial forecasts made in March for the 2025/26 season, according to UkrAgroConsult referencing Grain Central.
This anticipated production increase is largely attributed to significantly better weather conditions.
Nevertheless, some concerns linger as crops reach pivotal growth stages when they are particularly vulnerable to stress caused by inadequate moisture and temperature fluctuations. Central and northern European farming areas continue to experience dry weather, leading to soil moisture shortages that may negatively impact the growth and output of both winter and spring crops. Conversely, southern Europe has seen plentiful rainfall, which has enhanced soil moisture levels and boosted prospects for higher yields.
Regions such as northeastern France, the Benelux nations, Germany, the Czech Republic, western and northern Poland, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and the Baltic States have faced drier than usual conditions. These areas suffered precipitation deficits of at least 50% relative to the long-term average, with the span from March 1 to April 12 ranking among the driest periods since 1991. Additionally, temperatures exceeding averages have intensified soil moisture evaporation, accelerating crop development while depleting soil moisture reserves.
Yield risks are especially acute in Germany, which is Europe’s second-largest wheat producer, where topsoil moisture in large parts of the country is considerably below normal levels for early April. The national meteorological service reports that the period from February to mid-April was the driest recorded since 1931, with rainfall lagging roughly 200mm behind the 30-year average.
The JRC MARS bulletin explains that the initial dry spell helped EU winter crops recover from an overly wet winter; however, spring rainfall remains crucial to stabilize crop development and prevent reductions in anticipated yields. While the dry conditions in northern Europe have been favorable for spring sowing, subsequent precipitation is vital in many locations to ensure seedling emergence and early growth. Meanwhile, cold snaps combined with recent rains in parts of Central and Eastern Europe have postponed the sowing of spring and summer crops. In France, the EU’s leading cereal producer, the health of soft wheat and winter barley crops has slightly declined, though farmers remain hopeful that upcoming rains will support crop recovery following a dry early spring period.
The European Commission projects that the total cereal crop area in the EU for the 2025 harvest will reach 50.3 million hectares, marking a 2.5% increase compared to the 49 million hectares sown in 2024. Soft wheat dominates the cereal planting, comprising 42.1% of the total area with 21.17 million hectares. Barley is the second most cultivated cereal, covering 10.29 million hectares or 20.5% of the total, followed by corn, which accounts for 8.77 million hectares or 17.4%. Collectively, these three crops represent over 80% of the EU’s cereal acreage for the 2025/26 season.
According to JRC MARS, the forecast for soft wheat yield has risen to 6.03 tons per hectare, up from the March estimate of 6 t/ha and surpassing the 2024 final yield of 5.58 t/ha. Durum wheat’s average yield is predicted at 3.69 t/ha, slightly less than the initial March forecast of 3.70 t/ha but well above the 3.43 t/ha recorded in 2024. When combined, these estimates produce an average wheat yield of 5.82 t/ha for April, a slight increase from 5.80 t/ha in March and 5.55 t/ha in 2024. These figures suggest that total wheat production in the EU may reach 134.3 million tons, significantly exceeding the 12-year low of 118.9 million tons harvested in 2024. Soft wheat output is anticipated to be 126.3 million tons, rising from 111.7 million tons in 2024 – the smallest crop since 2007 – while durum wheat production is forecast at 7.9 million tons, a 10% increase from 7.2 million tons in 2024.
Barley yields for 2025 are expected to hit 5.08 tons per hectare per JRC MARS, an improvement over the March estimate of 5.06 t/ha and the 4.82 t/ha recorded in 2024. Winter barley yields are projected at 5.18 t/ha, slightly up from 5.15 t/ha in March and 4.81 t/ha in 2024. Spring barley sowing has not yet begun, but yields are forecast to remain steady at 4.87 t/ha, equal to the March forecast and 4.5% higher than the 4.66 t/ha yield in 2024. Overall barley production is currently estimated at 51.7 million tons, exceeding both the 2024 figure of 49.1 million tons and the five-year average of 50.6 million tons.
Maize production in the EU is anticipated to grow by 9.9% year-on-year, reaching 65 million tons in the 2025/26 season despite a slight reduction in acreage. This increase is primarily driven by a projected yield rise of 10.4%, from 6.71 t/ha in 2024 to 7.41 t/ha in 2025.
Regarding rapeseed, the area planted in fall 2024 totaled 5.9 million tons, just 200,000 hectares more than in 2023 but still above the five-year average. The JRC MARS yield forecast remains steady at 3.2 t/ha, unchanged from the initial March prediction and slightly better than the 2024 yield of 3.16 t/ha.