Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
According to a report by the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), Canada’s wheat production for the 2025-26 marketing year is projected to rise by 2%, driven by a 2.6% year-over-year increase in planted acreage.
The FAS anticipates that wheat acreage will expand to 11.1 million hectares, attributing this growth to strong global demand for high-quality wheat.
Data from Statistics Canada’s March survey on early planting intentions indicated that spring wheat acreage will experience the largest growth, increasing by 193,000 hectares, while durum wheat acreage is expected to stay the same. Winter wheat acreage is predicted to grow by 90,000 hectares, primarily in Ontario.
FAS forecasts total wheat production at 35.6 million tons, which, if realized, would mark the highest output since the record 37.5 million tons produced in the 2013-14 season.
As the third-largest wheat exporter in 2023-24, following Russia and the European Union, Canada is expected to boost shipments by 2% from the previous year’s record 26 million tons, according to FAS.
While wheat exports to the United States might decrease in May due to an ongoing trade dispute, FAS expects that any wheat rerouted away from the U.S. market will be absorbed by other buyers.
Furthermore, FAS highlighted the diversity of Canada’s wheat export markets, noting that the top ten importers accounted for only 65% of total Canadian wheat exports in 2023-24.