The global oilseed market is closely watching the anticipated EU rapeseed supply surge heading into the 2026/27 season. Record winter rapeseed plantings, combined with adequate soil moisture across most key regions, are setting the stage for a significant production increase. Analysts and traders worldwide are therefore adjusting their strategies in response to these developments.
EU Rapeseed Supply Surge Drives 2026/27 Production Forecast
Record-high winter rapeseed sowings and sufficient soil moisture in most major regions are paving the way for growth. Furthermore, this combination is expected to boost EU oilseed production in 2026/27 to 20.97 million tonnes. This figure represents an increase of 0.4 million tonnes compared to the previous season. Additionally, it marks a new all-time high, according to Oil World (Germany).
Experts estimate that EU oilseed stocks will exceed last year’s level by one million tonnes. As a result, stocks are projected to reach 1.33 million tonnes. Consequently, this is likely to further increase supply at the start of the 2026/27 season.
Growing Market Risks Offset the Positive Supply Balance
However, this positive balance stands in contrast to rising risks of a decline in global exports. This contradiction partly explains the price increase for the new crop. Moreover, European importers in the 2026/27 season could face strong competition from Chinese buyers and Canadian processors.
Key risk factors for European importers include:
- Increased competition from Chinese buyers in the global rapeseed market
- Stronger demand from Canadian processors due to biodiesel trends
- Declining global export volumes creating upward price pressure
Canada and Australia Face Output Challenges
Although experts are observing an expansion of planted area in Canada — the world’s leading oilseed producer — the harvest is nevertheless expected to fall to 21.4 million tonnes. This represents a decline of 1.8% compared to 21.8 million tonnes in the 2025/26 marketing year. Meanwhile, domestic processing in Canada will rise by 1 to 1.2 million tonnes due to biodiesel demand from the USA. This corresponds to an increase of approximately 9 to 11% compared to the average annual volume.
In Australia, weather conditions could completely offset the expansion of planted area. As a result, this may lead to production stagnation. The harvest is therefore expected to reach 7.6 million tonnes, which is a decline of at least 1% compared to 7.68 million tonnes in the 2025/26 marketing year.
Taken together, these global supply dynamics confirm that the EU rapeseed supply surge offers a crucial counterbalance to tightening production elsewhere. Nevertheless, European market participants must remain alert to intensifying international competition and weather-related uncertainties going into the new season.
Source: Oleoscope (Russia)