The EU grain production drop is becoming an increasingly prominent concern for agricultural markets heading into the 2026-27 season. Overall grain output in the European Union is expected to decline following an exceptional harvest in the previous marketing year. Furthermore, agricultural input prices are raising serious concerns about this fall’s planting season. A report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Information Service (FAS USDA) outlines these developments in detail.
FAS Projects EU Grain Production Drop Back to Average Levels
According to the FAS’s annual report, published on April 20, total EU grain production — including wheat, barley, and corn — is projected to return to average levels. Specifically, output is forecast at around 277 million tonnes in 2026-27, down from 288.8 million tonnes in 2025-26. Therefore, the EU grain production drop amounts to nearly 12 million tonnes year on year.
In addition, preliminary estimates indicate that EU farmers will reduce their grain acreage in 2026-2027. The area is estimated at 48.9 million hectares, compared to 49.4 million hectares the previous year. This reduction reflects the impact of high input costs and low overall profitability in the sector.
Rising Input Costs and Market Disruptions Weigh on Farmers
The FAS notes that raw material costs, particularly for fertilizers and fuel, have risen sharply across the EU. Moreover, the introduction of the Carbon Border Duty Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) from January 2026 makes imported fertilizers even more expensive. Furthermore, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has disrupted both energy and fertilizer markets.
Although the agency notes ample fertilizer stocks, farmers are expected to optimize and reduce their use. Consequently, this could impact not only grain yields but also grain quality, affecting protein content, the FAS stated. The situation could become even more challenging going forward. Indeed, analysts are expressing serious concern about the 2027-2028 campaign and are not ruling out a sharp reduction in the area sown to grain crops this coming autumn.
Wheat, Corn, and Barley Forecasts for 2026-27
If yields in most countries are close to average, the wheat harvest could reach 136.8 million tonnes, according to FAS estimates. There is potential for growth if weather conditions remain favorable during the spring and early summer. However, compared to 145.1 million tonnes in 2025/26, this represents a decline of 8.3 million tonnes.
Thanks to ample reserves and competitive prices, EU wheat exports in 2026-2027 are projected to reach 32 million tonnes. This is slightly less than the 32.14 million tonnes shipped in 2025-2026. France is expected to regain its position as the EU’s leading exporter, followed by:
- Romania
- Germany
- Poland
- Bulgaria
- The Baltic states
FAS forecasts total wheat demand to rise to 112.4 million tonnes from 111.7 million tonnes last year. Both food and industrial wheat benefit from prices that remain competitive with other raw materials. Moreover, feed wheat demand is forecast to increase slightly to 48.5 million tonnes, supported by stable consumption for poultry feed, despite declining demand for cattle and pig feed.
The EU’s corn area will decline in 2026-27 to a historically low 7.9 million hectares. This reinforces a trend observed over the past 10 years, driven by declining profitability, low yields, and strong global competition.
Finally, barley production is projected to reach 53.1 million tonnes on 10.1 million hectares in 2026-27. This compares to the estimated 56.3 million tonnes on 9.9 million hectares in the previous year. Thus, barley too follows the broader downward pattern across EU grain crops.
Source: Oleoscope (Russia)