Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
US corn prices rising trends are emerging as values creep back up after last month’s sharp decline. Moreover, this is happening despite record corn production in the US. However, overall feed costs should remain reasonable, according to Chad Hart, an economist at Iowa State University.
US Corn Prices Rising: Export Demand and Inventory Impact
According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), US corn exports from September to January likely exceeded 1.3 billion bushels. Furthermore, this is 100 million bushels higher than last month’s figures. Strong export figures added several cents per bushel to the price of corn last month. Consequently, the upward trend will likely continue as demand shows no signs of weakening in the near term.
“When the USDA raises its export figures, inventories become really low, and that should lead to higher prices, which is what we’re seeing in the futures market,” Hart said.
Price Projections and Self-Limiting Factors
However, any price increases should be self-limiting, Hart added: as prices rise, the pace of sales should slow. “We’re not talking about $5 corn,” he said. “We’re talking about prices in the $4.5 range.”
Meanwhile, within the US, consumer demand for protein — especially beef and chicken — remains unusually high despite high prices. Furthermore, that trend appears to be going global, driving up demand for feed and, therefore, for U.S. corn, Hart explained.
Soybean Market Comparison and Global Production Shifts
The same cannot be said for soybeans, which rose nearly 30 cents a bushel last week. Additionally, current soybean prices, Hart said, are based on speculation that China will purchase more U.S. soybeans beyond current volumes — speculation that the USDA strongly refuted in its February 10 report.
“China is reportedly considering purchasing more U.S. soybeans. Global demand for soybean imports has remained virtually unchanged from last month, so if China buys more from the United States, global soybean exports are likely to change: more shipments from the US will go to China and fewer to other markets,” the report said. The USDA left the expected average price of soybeans for farmers unchanged at $10.20 per bushel.
US soybean producers face stiff competition from Brazil, which typically has lower production costs and grew a record 6.6 billion bushels of soybeans this season, Hart noted.
“This means that many countries are now turning to Brazil for soybean purchases because they have huge volumes to sell,” he said.
It appears that global markets are moving toward a model in which Brazil dominates soybean production and the US dominates corn production. Moreover, the upcoming season is unlikely to change this trend — farmers, at least in Iowa, are preparing most of their land for another year of corn production, Hart said. Early USDA estimates suggest that the potential corn harvest in 2026 will be only slightly lower than the record high in 2025.
