The Kazakhstan wheat production drop forecast for 2026 has drawn significant attention across global grain markets. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), both weather conditions and market factors in Kazakhstan will lead to a sharp decline in wheat and barley production this year. Nevertheless, the harvest is still expected to fall within the average historical range, as World-grain.com reports.
Kazakhstan Wheat Production Drop: USDA Projects 14 Million Tonnes in 2026
The Kazakhstan wheat production drop is substantial when viewed against recent seasons. Specifically, wheat output for the current season is projected to reach up to 14 million tonnes. By comparison, FAS estimates put production at 18 million tonnes in 2025 and 18.57 million tonnes in 2024. Consequently, the decline from near-record levels is significant and will affect both domestic supply and export capacity.
Furthermore, the projected wheat sown area is set at 11.5 million hectares — virtually unchanged from 2025 levels. However, that figure is still 1 million hectares less than two seasons ago. This notable reduction in sown area is largely due to an expansion of land allocated to oilseed crops, which offer farmers higher profit margins.
Impact on Wheat Exports and Domestic Supply
According to FAS assessments, the anticipated production decline means that wheat exports in 2026–2027 will drop significantly compared to the previous year. Specifically, exports will fall to 7.5 million tonnes, down from 11 million tonnes. This scenario assumes that producers and traders will prioritize exports over domestic sales. At the same time, they will rely on imports of Russian wheat to supply the milling industry and for re-export purposes.
Additionally, substantial carryover stocks of wheat will be utilized to bridge the gap between supply and demand. Therefore, despite the sharp decline in production, the market is not expected to face an outright supply crisis.
Barley Sector: Contraction in Output, Expansion in Sown Area
The barley sector also faces a difficult 2026 season. Barley production is forecast to contract to 3.1 million tonnes, down from an estimated 3.6 million tonnes last year. Nevertheless, the area sown with barley is expected to expand to 2.4 million hectares. This expansion is driven by market expectations of strong demand.
The FAS explained the reasoning behind this shift directly:
“Due to record wheat harvests over the past two years — which led to a decline in wheat prices — farmers plan to sow more barley this spring in the hope of securing higher profits.”
Furthermore, barley exports in 2026–2027 are projected to decrease by 200,000 tons compared to the previous season, totaling 1.5 million tons. At the same time, strong domestic demand for barley is anticipated. Consequently, even with lower export volumes, the internal market is expected to absorb a meaningful share of barley output. Similarly, the shift toward oilseeds reflects a broader trend among Kazakhstani farmers seeking more profitable alternatives to wheat cultivation.
Source: Zerno On-Line (Russia)