Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
After a strong start at the beginning of the season, export demand for soybeans in Ukraine fell at the end of October as the supply of cheap US soybeans on the world market increased. However, demand and prices in the Black Sea ports rose again this week.
In October, soybean exports from Ukraine tripled compared to September to a record 675,000 tons, 20% higher than the previous record of 561,500 tons in October 2019. The increase in exports was driven by growing demand for Ukrainian soybeans from the EU and Turkey amid lower soybean prices in July-August.
In total, Ukraine exported 918,000 tons of soybeans in the 2024/25 marketing year (44% more than in the previous year), 47% of which were exported to the EU (54% more than in the previous year). Soybean exports to Turkey increased by 10%. In addition, shipments to Pakistan increased to 12% of total soybean exports.
During the week, purchase prices for GMO soybeans at ports increased by 500-600 UAH/ton to 18300-18500 UAH/ton or 380-385 USD/ton, while processors kept prices at 18000-18200 UAH/ton with delivery to the mill, giving exporters an advantage in the battle for volumes.
Soybean meal prices are falling as the supply of soybean meal is increasing, so processors will soon have an “overstock” of meal and reduce processing volumes of soybeans, as competition in the world market for meal is much stronger than in the market for soybeans.
Export purchase prices for non-GMO soybeans in the Black Sea ports remain at 450-455 US dollars/ton or 21000-21500 UAH/ton, while processors buy them at 21500-21800 UAH/ton on delivery to the factory.
According to Conab, 53% of the planned area in Brazil was sown with soybeans on November 3 (48% last year), and the favorable weather will allow to complete sowing in optimal conditions and achieve a record harvest this season.
November soybean futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rose 3% to $365/ton (-4% for the month) as a smaller US crop was forecast.
On the eve of the USDA report, Reuters polled analysts who said the US soybean yield estimate was lowered 0.3 from October to 52.8 bushels/acre.
The US presidential election will determine the further dynamics of soybean prices, as the Republicans do not support subsidies for biodiesel production, which could lead to lower demand for soybeans, corn and canola.