Corn

Kazakhstan

• Climate: Kazakhstan’s continental climate is similar to Russia’s, with cold winters and hot summers.
• Region: The northern regions such as Akmola and northern Kazakhstan are more suitable for growing corn due to their slightly milder climate.
• Soil: The country’s fertile soils, including black soil and gray-brown soils, are suitable for growing corn.
• Irrigation: Irrigation is critical in many areas due to limited rainfall.
• Yield: The average yield is around 4-5 tons per hectare, which is relatively low.
• Pests and diseases: Similar to Russia, corn borers, aphids and fungal diseases are common problems in Kazakh corn fields.
• Market: Kazakhstan is a smaller producer of corn compared to Russia, but it is still an important crop for the country’s agricultural sector.

Ukraine

• Climate: The climate in Ukraine is temperate, with cold winters and warm summers, making it more suitable for corn production.
• Region: The southern and eastern regions such as Odessa, Kherson and Donetsk are the main corn growing areas.
• Soil: Ukraine’s fertile black soils, similar to those in Russia, are well suited to corn production.
• Irrigation: Irrigation is not as necessary in Ukraine as in Russia and Kazakhstan due to more frequent rainfall.
• Yield: The average yield is about 7-8 tons per hectare, which is higher than Russia and Kazakhstan.
• Pests and diseases: Corn borers, aphids and fungal diseases still occur in Ukrainian corn fields, although to a lesser extent than in Russia and Kazakhstan.
• Market: Ukraine is a major exporter of corn, with much of it going to the European Union.

Eastern Europe

• Climate: The climate in Eastern Europe is generally more favorable for corn production than in Russia and Kazakhstan, with milder winters and warmer summers.
• Region: Countries such as Poland, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia are major corn producers in the region.
• Soil: The region’s fertile soils, including clay and black soil, are suitable for corn production.
• Irrigation: Irrigation is not as necessary in Eastern Europe as in Russia and Kazakhstan due to more frequent rainfall.
• Yield: The average yield is about 8-10 tons per hectare, which is higher than Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.
• Pests and Diseases: Corn borers, aphids and fungal diseases are common in Eastern European corn fields, but are generally less serious than in Russia and Kazakhstan.
• Market: Eastern European countries are major producers and exporters of corn, with much of it going to the European Union.
• Although corn cultivation in these regions faces challenges such as climate and soil limitations, the crop still remains an important part of the agricultural sector in Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Eastern Europe.

Russia

Corn growing area

According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, the area under corn cultivation in Russia is expected to be around 2023-3,4 million hectares in 3,5. This is based on the ministry’s forecast for the 2023 agricultural season.

To give you a little more context, corn is one of the main crops in Russia, and the country has increased its corn production in recent years. In 2022, the corn sown area in Russia was around 3,2 million hectares, and the total production volume was around 13,5 million tonnes. Here are some additional statistics about corn cultivation in Russia.

In 2022, the main corn-growing regions in Russia were:

1. Rostov Oblast (1,3 million hectares)
2. Krasnodar Territory (744.000 hectares)
3. Stavropol Territory (642.000 hectares)
4. Voronezh Oblast (555.000 hectares)
5. Belgorod Oblast (473.000 hectares)

Russia’s corn production has grown steadily in recent years, with an average annual growth rate of around 5-7%. The country’s corn yield has also increased, with an average yield of around 5-6 tons per hectare in 2022.

Of the main varieties of corn grown in Russia

In Russia, corn is an important crop and several main varieties are grown in the country. Here are some of the most popular:

• Krasnodarsky 179: This is one of the most widely grown varieties of corn in Russia, known for its high yield and disease resistance. It is a mid-season variety suitable for cultivation in the southern regions of Russia.
• Saratovsky 2: This variety is popular in the Volga Valley region and is known for its high yield and good grain quality. It is a mid-late season variety suitable for cultivation in the central and southern regions of Russia.
• Donskoy 150: This variety is grown in the southern regions of Russia, especially in the Rostov and Krasnodar regions. It is a mid-season variety known for its high yield and drought resistance.
• Voronezhsky 1: This variety is popular in the central black earth region and is known for its high yield and good grain quality. It is a mid-season variety suitable for cultivation in the central and southern regions of Russia.
• Kubansky 95: This variety is grown in the Krasnodar Territory and is known for its high yield and disease resistance. It is a mid-season variety suitable for cultivation in the southern regions of Russia.
• Stavropolsky 1: This variety is popular in the Stavropol region and is known for its high yield and good grain quality. It is a mid-season variety suitable for cultivation in the southern regions of Russia.
• Uralochka: This variety is grown in the Ural region and is known for its high yield and cold resistance. It is a mid-season variety suitable for cultivation in the central and eastern regions of Russia.
• Siberian 1: This variety is popular in the Siberian region and is known for its high yield and resistance to cold temperatures. It is a mid-season variety suitable for cultivation in the eastern regions of Russia.

These are just a few examples of the main varieties of corn grown in Russia. Depending on the specific climate and soil conditions, many more varieties are grown in different regions.

Quality indicators of corn grown in Russia

physical parameters

• Moisture Content: The moisture content of corn from Russia should be between 14% and 15% to ensure proper storage and transportation.
• Impurities: The level of impurities, including broken grains, stones and other impurities, should not exceed 2%.
• Grain size: The grain size should be uniform, with at least 75% of the grains having a diameter of more than 2,5 mm.
• Color: The color of the corn should be yellow, slight variations are allowed.

Chemical parameters

• Protein Content: The protein content of Russian corn should be between 8% and 12%.
• Starch content: The starch content should be over 70%.
• Fat content: The fat content should be between 3,5% and 5,5%.
• Ash content: The ash content should be less than 1,5%.

Biological parameters

• Mycoflora: The corn should be free of harmful mycoflora, including aflatoxins, ochratoxins and fumonisins.
• Pests: The corn should be free of pests, including insect infestation and rodent damage.
• Diseases: The corn should be free of diseases, including fungal and bacterial infections.

Other quality indicators

• Hardness: The corn should have a hardness of at least 70 points on the Shore scale.
• Density: The density of the corn should be over 0,7 g/cm³.
• Germination: The germination rate of corn should be above 90%.
• Foreign Matter: The corn should be free of foreign matter, including soil, straw and other contaminants.

Russian standards

In Russia, corn is divided into several varieties based on its quality indicators. The main classes are:

• Class 1: High quality corn with a protein content of 10% to 12% and a starch content of 72% to 75%.
• Class 2: Medium quality corn with a protein content of 8% to 10% and a starch content of 68% to 72%.
• Class 3: Lower quality corn with a protein content of less than 8% and a starch content of less than 68%.

Certification and documents

To ensure the quality of corn from Russia, the following documents and certifications are required:

• Phytosanitary certificate
• Certificate of Origin
• Quality certificate
• GMP certification (Good Manufacturing Practice)
• HACCP certification (Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points)

Share of the world market

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, Russia’s share of the global corn market has increased in recent years. In 2020, Russia was the sixth largest corn producer in the world, accounting for about 3,4% of global corn production. The five largest corn producers in 2020 were:

1. United States (34,6% of world production)
2. China (23,2% of world production)
3. Brazil (14,5% of world production)
4. Argentina (6,5% of world production)
5. Ukraine (5,4% of world production)

In terms of corn exports, Russia was the fourth largest exporter in 2020, accounting for about 6,2% of global corn exports. The top five corn exporters in 2020 were:

1. United States (34,4% of global exports)
2. Brazil (23,5% of global exports)
3. Argentina (13,5% of global exports)
4. Russia (6,2% of global exports)
5. Ukraine (5,6% of global exports)

Although Russia’s overall share of the global corn market is still relatively small, the country has the potential to become an important player in the global corn market in the future.

Price dynamics

Here is an overview of the price dynamics for Russian corn over the last five years (2017-2022):

2017

• Average annual price: 12.300 RUB/Tonne (approx. $190/ton)
• Price Trend: Steady growth throughout the year, driven by increased demand from livestock producers and exporters. Highest price: RUB 13.500/ton (approximately $210/ton) in December 2017
• Low price: RUB 11.500/ton (approximately $170/ton) in January 2017

2018

• Average annual price: RUB 13.500/ton (approx. $210/ton)
• Price Trend: Volatile, with prices falling in the first half of the year due to increased supply from the 2017 harvest and then rising in the second half of the year due to strong export demand.
• High price: 15.000 RUB/ton (about $230/ton) in November 2018
• Low price: 12.000 RUB/ton (approximately $180/ton) in April 2018

2019

• Average annual price: RUB 14.300/ton (approx. $220/ton)
• Price Trend: Generally increasing, driven by strong demand from exports and ranchers as well as concerns about the impact of weather conditions on the 2019 crop.
• High price: 16.000 RUB/ton (about $250/ton) in August 2019
• Low price: 13.000 RUB/ton (approximately $200/ton) in February 2019

2020

• Average annual price: RUB 15.100/ton (approx. $240/ton)
• Price Performance: Volatile, with prices falling in the first half of the year due to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns and then rising in the second half due to strong demand from exports and livestock producers.
• Highest price: RUB 17.500/ton (approximately $280/ton) in December 2020
• Low price: 13.500 RUB/ton (approximately $210/ton) in April 2020

2021

• Average annual price: RUB 16.300/ton (approx. $260/ton)
• Price Trend: Generally rising, driven by strong demand from exports and ranchers as well as concerns about the impact of drought on the 2021 crop.
• Highest price: RUB 18.500/ton (approximately $300/ton) in October 2021
• Low price: 14.500 RUB/ton (approximately $230/ton) in February 2021

2022

• Average annual price (as of August 2022): RUB 17.600/ton (approx. $290/ton)
• Price trend: Generally rising, driven by strong demand from exports and ranchers as well as concerns about the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy and grain exports.
• Highest price: RUB 20.000/ton (approximately $330/ton) in July 2022
• Low price: RUB 15.500/ton (approximately $250/ton) in January 2022

Demand for Russian corn

Russia is a major producer and consumer of corn, with the majority of corn production used for animal feed, biofuels and human consumption. According to the Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), the country produced around 2020 million tonnes of corn in 13,6, a significant increase from 9,4 million tonnes in 2015.

Demand drivers

The demand for Russian corn is determined by several factors, including:

• Growth in livestock production: Russia’s livestock industry is growing, driven by increasing domestic demand for meat and poultry products. This growth is expected to boost demand for corn, an important ingredient in animal feed.
• Biofuel production: Russia has set a goal to increase the production of biofuels, which are blended with gasoline to power vehicles. Corn is a key raw material for biofuel production, and rising demand for biofuels is expected to boost demand for corn.
• Export Opportunities: Russia has increased its corn exports to countries such as Turkey, Egypt and Iran, driven by competitive prices and growing demand for corn in these markets.
• Food security: The Russian government has prioritized food security and corn is considered an important crop for domestic food production.

Forecast

Based on these demand drivers, here is a forecast of Russian corn demand:

Short term (2023-2025)

• Production: 14,5 million tons (2023), 15,5 million tons (2024), 16,5 million tons (2025)
• Export: 2,5 million tons (2023), 3,5 million tons (2024), 4,5 million tons (2025)
• Domestic consumption: 12 million tons (2023), 12,5 million tons (2024), 13,5 million tons (2025)

Medium term (2025-2030)

• Production: 18 million tons (2025), 20 million tons (2027), 22 million tons (2029)
• Export: 5 million tons (2025), 6,5 million tons (2027), 8 million tons (2029)
• Domestic consumption: 15 million tons (2025), 16,5 million tons (2027), 18 million tons (2029)

Long term (2030-2040)

• Production: 25 million tons (2030), 30 million tons (2035), 35 million tons (2040)
• Export: 10 million tons (2030), 12,5 million tons (2035), 15 million tons (2040)
• Domestic consumption: 20 million tons (2030), 22,5 million tons (2035), 25 million tons (2040)

Kazakhstan

Corn growing area

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, the area under corn cultivation in Kazakhstan is estimated to be around 2023 million hectares in 1,2.

Here are the FAO data on the area under corn cultivation in Kazakhstan from 2020 to 2023:

• 2020: 1,04 million hectares
• 2021: 1,08 million hectares
• 2022: 1,14 million hectares
• 2023: 1,20 million hectares (estimates)

It should be noted that the actual acreage may vary depending on factors such as weather conditions, market demand and government policies. However, the FAO estimates provide a reliable indication of the development of corn cultivation area in Kazakhstan.

Of the main varieties of corn grown in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is a major corn producer in Central Asia and the country has several major corn varieties that are grown on a large scale. Here are some of the main varieties of corn grown in Kazakhstan:

• Zarya: This is a popular corn variety in Kazakhstan known for its high yield and disease resistance. It is a mid-season variety that matures in around 120-130 days.
• Kazakhstanskaya 1: This variety was developed by Kazakh scientists and is suitable for cultivation in the country’s dry climate. It is a medium-ripening variety that ripens in around 110-120 days.
• Saratovskaya 2: This variety is widely grown in Kazakhstan and is known for its high yield and good grain quality. It is a mid-season variety that matures in around 120-130 days.
• Krasnodarskaya 2: This variety comes from Russia and is popular in Kazakhstan for its high yield and disease resistance. It is a mid-season variety that matures in around 120-130 days.
• Volgogradskaya 2: This variety is also imported from Russia and is known for its high yield and good grain quality. It is a mid-season variety that matures in around 120-130 days.
• Dostyk: This is a hybrid variety of corn developed by Kazakh scientists. It is known for its high yield and disease resistance. It is a mid-season variety that matures in around 120-130 days.
• Alatau: This variety is suitable for cultivation in the mountainous regions of Kazakhstan and is known for its cold tolerance and disease resistance. It is a mid-season variety that matures in around 120-130 days.
• Talas: This variety was developed by Kazakh scientists and is known for its high yield and good grain quality. It is a mid-season variety that matures in around 120-130 days.

Quality indicators of corn grown in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is a major producer of corn and the quality of corn from Kazakhstan can vary depending on various factors such as climate, soil and farming methods. Here are some quality indicators for corn from Kazakhstan:

• Moisture Content: The ideal moisture content for corn is between 13% and 15%. Higher moisture levels can lead to mold growth, spoilage and shortened shelf life. Corn from Kazakhstan typically has a moisture content of around 14%.
• Protein Content: The protein content of corn from Kazakhstan is generally around 8-10%, which is slightly lower than the global average. However, some varieties can have a protein content of up to 12%.
• Starch content: The starch content of corn from Kazakhstan is around 70-75%, which is the world average.
• Oil content: The oil content of corn from Kazakhstan is around 3-4%, which is relatively low compared to other corn growing countries.
• Crude fiber content: The crude fiber content of corn from Kazakhstan is around 2-3%, which is within the acceptable range.
• Thousand grain weight (TKW): The TKW of corn from Kazakhstan is around 250-300 grams, which is slightly below the global average.
• Size and shape: The size and shape of Kazakh corn can vary depending on the variety, but generally it is medium to large in size and has a rounded or slightly flat shape.
• Color: The color of Kazakh corn can range from yellow to white, with some varieties having a slight pink or red tinge.
• Germination Rate: The germination rate of Kazakh corn is typically around 90-95%, which is within the acceptable range.
• Pests and diseases: Corn from Kazakhstan is generally free from pests and diseases, but it is not uncommon to find some cases of aflatoxin, fusarium or other contaminants.
• Aflatoxin content: The aflatoxin content of corn from Kazakhstan is strictly regulated and must be below 20 ppb (parts per billion) to meet international standards.
• Fumonisin content: The fumonisin content of corn from Kazakhstan is also regulated and must be below 2 ppm (parts per million) to meet international standards.
• Pesticide residues: Pesticide residues in corn from Kazakhstan are subject to strict regulations and must meet international standards, such as those of the Codex Alimentarius Commission.
• Mycoestrogen content: The mycoestrogen content of corn from Kazakhstan is also regulated and must be below 100 ppb to meet international standards.

Share of the world market

Kazakhstan is a significant player in the global corn market, although its share is still relatively small compared to other major corn producing countries. In 2020, Kazakhstan produced around 3,4 million tons of corn, accounting for about 0,3% of global corn production. In 2020, Kazakhstan exported around 1,5 million tons of corn, accounting for about 0,13% of global corn exports.

Based on the above figures, Kazakhstan’s share of the global corn market is relatively small and amounts to around 0,2 to 0,3%. However, it is worth noting that Kazakhstan’s corn production and exports have grown steadily in recent years, driven by government support for the agricultural sector and investments in irrigation infrastructure.

Kazakhstan ranks 15th in global corn production, but its exports are significant in the region, particularly to countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and neighboring countries.

Price dynamics

Kazakh corn price dynamics over the past five years can be influenced by various factors, including global market trends, weather conditions, government policies and domestic demand. Here is an overview of the price development for Kazakh corn over the last five years.

2018

• The average price of Kazakh corn in 2018 was around 80.000-90.000 KZT per ton (approximately 220-250 USD per ton).
• Prices were relatively high due to a drought in 2017 that led to a decline in corn production in Kazakhstan.
• Exports were also high, driven by strong demand from neighboring countries such as Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.

2019

• The average price of Kazakh corn in 2019 was around 70.000-80.000 KZT per ton (approximately $190-220 per ton).
• Prices fell slightly due to a record harvest in 2018, leading to an increase in domestic supply and a decline in exports.
• The devaluation of the Russian ruble against the US-Dollar also impacted Kazakh corn prices, as Russia is an important export market for Kazakhstan.

2020

• The average price of Kazakh corn in 2020 was around 60.000-70.000 KZT per ton (approximately $160-190 per ton).
• Prices continued to decline due to a global oversupply of corn, primarily due to increased production in the United States and Ukraine.
• The COVID-19 pandemic also impacted demand, leading to lower prices.

2021

• The average price of Kazakh corn in 2021 was around 70.000-80.000 KZT per ton (approximately $190-220 per ton).
• Prices recovered slightly due to a decline in global corn supplies due to dry weather conditions in key producing countries.
• Strong demand from China, which has increased its corn imports, also supported prices.

2022

• The average price of Kazakh corn in 2022 is around 80.000-90.000 KZT per ton (approximately $220-250 per ton).
• Prices have continued to rise due to ongoing global supply chain disruptions, increased demand from China and strong domestic demand in Kazakhstan.
• The Russian invasion of Ukraine has also caused a significant increase in corn prices, as Ukraine is a major corn exporter.

Forecast of demand for Kazakh corn

Kazakhstan is a major corn producer in Central Asia, with an average annual production of around 2-3 million tons. The country’s corn production has increased over the years due to government support to the agricultural sector, improved technology and favorable climatic conditions.

Demand drivers

• Domestic consumption: The demand for corn in Kazakhstan is mainly driven by the livestock sector, which accounts for around 60% of the total demand. The poultry and swine industries are the primary consumers of corn, with a trend toward increased feed consumption.
• Export markets: Kazakhstan exports a significant portion of its corn production to neighboring countries, including Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The country is also exploring new export markets, including China and other Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) countries.
• Food processing: The demand for corn is also driven by the growing food processing industry in Kazakhstan, which uses corn as a raw material for producing various food products such as corn flakes, corn flour and other snack foods.

Demand forecasting

Based on current market trends and demand drivers, demand for Kazakh corn is expected to grow moderately in the coming years. Here is a forecast of demand for Kazakh corn:

Short-term forecast (2023-2025)

• Domestic demand: 1,2-1,5 million tons per year, with a growth rate of 3-5% per year.
• Export demand: 0,5-0,8 million tons per year, with a growth rate of 5-7% per year.
• Total demand: 1,7-2,3 million tons per year, with a growth rate of 4-6% per year.

Medium-term forecast (2025-2030)

• Domestic demand: 1,5-2,0 million tons per year, with a growth rate of 4-6% per year.
• Export demand: 0,8-1,2 million tons per year, with a growth rate of 7-10% per year.
• Total demand: 2,3-3,2 million tons per year, with a growth rate of 5-8% per year.

Long-term forecast (2030-2040)

• Domestic demand: 2,0-2,5 million tons per year, with a growth rate of 5-7% per year.
• Export demand: 1,2-1,8 million tons per year, with a growth rate of 10-12% per year.
• Total demand: 3,2-4,3 million tons per year, with a growth rate of 7-10% per year.

Ukraine

Corn growing area

According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food, the area under corn cultivation in Ukraine in 2023 is expected to be around 3,5 to 4 million hectares. Here are some specific statistics about corn cultivation in Ukraine:

• In 2022, the area under corn cultivation in Ukraine was around 3,3 million hectares, with a total harvest of 10,2 million tons.
• According to the Ukrainian Agricultural Commodities Exchange, the area under corn cultivation in Ukraine is expected to increase by 2023-5% to around 7-3,5 million hectares in 4.

The main regions for growing corn in Ukraine are:

• Khmelnytskyi Oblast: 450.000-500.000 hectares
• Vinnytsia Oblast: 350.000-400.000 hectares
• Cherkasy Oblast: 300.000-350.000 hectares
• Poltava Oblast: 250.000-300.000 hectares
• Kharkiv Oblast: 200.000-250.000 hectares

Ukraine is among the top five corn exporters in the world and the country aims to increase its corn exports to 2023-5 million tons by 6.

Of the main varieties of corn grown in Ukraine

Ukraine is one of the largest corn producers in the world and the country has a wide range of corn varieties suitable for its climate and soil conditions. Here are some of the main varieties of corn grown in Ukraine:

• Dniprovska 2: This is one of the most popular corn varieties in Ukraine, known for its high yield potential and disease resistance. It is a mid-season variety that matures in around 120-130 days.
• Ukrainka: This variety is widely grown in Ukraine and is known for its high yield potential and good drought tolerance. It is a mid-season variety that matures in around 120-130 days.
• Kievskaya 2: This variety is another popular variety in Ukraine known for its high yield potential and disease resistance. It is a mid-season variety that matures in around 120-130 days.
• Polyarna: This variety is known for its cold tolerance and is commonly grown in the northern regions of Ukraine. It is a mid-season variety that matures in around 120-130 days.
• Zaporozhskaya 2: This variety is grown in the southern regions of Ukraine, where the climate is warmer. It is a late season variety that matures in about 140-150 days.
• Kharkivska: This variety is known for its high yield potential and is commonly grown in the eastern regions of Ukraine. It is a mid-season variety that matures in around 120-130 days.
• Sumskaya 2: This variety is grown in the western regions of Ukraine, where the climate is cooler. It is a mid-season variety that matures in around 120-130 days.
• Luganskaya: This variety is known for its high yield potential and is commonly grown in the eastern regions of Ukraine. It is a mid-season variety that matures in around 120-130 days.
• Donetskaya: This variety is grown in the eastern regions of Ukraine, where the climate is warmer. It is a late season variety that matures in about 140-150 days.
• Hybrid Varieties: Ukraine is also a major producer of hybrid corn varieties, which are bred for their high yield potential, disease resistance and drought tolerance. These varieties are commonly used in commercial corn cultivation.

It is worth noting that new varieties of corn are constantly being developed and introduced in Ukraine, so this list is not exhaustive. Additionally, the specific varieties grown in Ukraine may vary depending on factors such as region, climate and soil type.

Quality indicators of corn grown in Ukraine

Physical Properties

• Moisture Content: The optimal moisture content for corn is between 13% and 15%. Higher moisture levels can lead to mold and fungus growth, while lower levels can affect the grain’s ability to absorb water.
• Test Weight: The test weight of corn is a measure of its density, with a higher test weight indicating higher grain quality. The minimum test weight for Ukrainian corn is typically 750 kg/m³.
• Broken Grains: The percentage of broken kernels is an important quality indicator because broken kernels can be more susceptible to spoilage and can affect the overall quality of the grain. The maximum percentage of broken cores allowed is typically 5%.
• Foreign substances: The presence of foreign substances such as stones, dirt or other contaminants can affect the quality of the corn. The maximum permissible proportion of foreign substances is typically 2%.

Chemical composition

• Protein Content: The protein content of corn is an important quality indicator because it affects the nutritional value and suitability of the grain for various uses. The protein content of Ukrainian corn is typically between 8% and 12%.
• Starch content: The starch content of corn is also an important quality indicator as it influences the energy value and suitability of the grain for various uses. The starch content of Ukrainian corn is typically between 70% and 80%.
• Oil Content: The oil content of corn is an important quality indicator because it affects the nutritional value and suitability of the grain for various uses. The oil content of Ukrainian corn is typically between 3% and 5%.
• Aflatoxin Content: Aflatoxins are a type of mycotoxin that can be present in corn and affect its quality and safety. The maximum allowable aflatoxin content in Ukrainian corn is typically 0,05 mg/kg.

Pest and disease resistance

• Pest Infestation: The presence of pests such as rodents, insects or mites can affect the quality of the corn. Ukrainian corn is usually inspected for pest infestation and must meet certain standards.
• Disease resistance: The presence of diseases such as Fusarium or Aspergillus can affect the quality of corn. Ukrainian corn is typically bred to be resistant to certain diseases and must meet certain standards.

Other quality indicators

• Color and Appearance: The color and appearance of corn can affect its quality and marketability. Ukrainian corn is usually yellow or white in color and looks clean and dry.
• Smell and Taste: The smell and taste of corn can affect its quality and marketability. Ukrainian corn is usually free of unpleasant odors or tastes.
• Sampling and testing: Before export, Ukrainian corn is usually sampled and tested for quality and safety. The sampling and testing process typically involves laboratory testing for various parameters including moisture content, protein content and aflatoxin content.

Overall, the quality of corn from Ukraine is closely monitored and regulated to ensure that it meets the standards of international markets.

Share of the world market

Ukraine is a significant player in the global corn market and its share has grown over the years. Here are some statistics:

• Global corn production: According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, global corn production reached 2020 billion tons in 21/1,13.
• Ukrainian corn production: Ukraine is the fifth largest corn producer in the world. In 2020/21, Ukraine produced around 36,3 million tons of corn, accounting for about 3,2% of global production.
• Ukrainian Corn Exports: Ukraine is a major corn exporter and ranks third in the world in corn exports. In 2020/21, Ukraine exported around 24,5 million tons of corn, accounting for about 6,5% of global corn exports.
• Share of Ukrainian corn in the world market: Based on the above data, Ukraine’s share in the global corn market is about 5-6%. This proportion has steadily increased over the years, due to the country’s favorable agro-climatic conditions, investments in agriculture and growing demand for corn from countries such as China and Europe.

The main destinations for Ukrainian corn exports are:

• China: 35-40% of Ukrainian corn exports
• Europe: 20-25% of Ukrainian corn exports
• Africa: 15-20% of Ukrainian corn exports
• Asia (excluding China): 10-15% of Ukrainian corn exports
• Other regions: 5-10% of Ukrainian corn exports

Price dynamics

Here is an overview of the price dynamics for Ukrainian corn over the last five years.

2018

• The average price of Ukrainian corn in 2018 was around $150-160 per ton, which is relatively low compared to other years.
• Prices were influenced by a record harvest of over 28 million tons, which led to an oversupply of corn on the market.
• Prices were also affected by global trade tensions and a drop in demand from China, a major importer of Ukrainian corn.

2019

• In 2019, the average price of Ukrainian corn increased to about $170-180 per ton, reflecting a decline in production to about 25 million tons.
• Prices were also supported by the recovery in demand from China and growth in exports to other countries such as Egypt and Turkey.
• However, prices were still under pressure due to excess global supply and competition from other major corn exporters such as the United States and Brazil.

2020

• In 2020, the average price of Ukrainian corn increased to about $200-210 per ton, reflecting a significant drop in production to about 20 million tons due to unfavorable weather conditions.
• Prices were also supported by growing demand from China, which increased its imports of Ukrainian corn to record levels.
• The COVID-19 pandemic also impacted prices by causing supply chain disruptions and increased demand for corn from the animal feed and biofuel industries.

2021

• In 2021, the average price of Ukrainian corn fell to around $180-190 per ton, reflecting a recovery in production to around 25 million tons.
• Prices were also affected by a drop in demand from China, which reduced its imports of Ukrainian corn due to the COVID-19 pandemic and changes in its agricultural policy.
• However, prices continued to be supported by growth in exports to other countries such as Egypt and Turkey, as well as increasing demand from the animal feed and biofuel industries.

2022

• In 2022, the average price of Ukrainian corn is expected to be around $200-220 per ton, reflecting a decline in production to around 20 million tons due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Prices are also supported by growing demand from Europe and other regions seeking alternative sources of corn due to the war’s impact on global supply chains.

Forecasting demand

Present Situation

Ukraine is one of the largest corn exporters in the world, accounting for about 10-15% of global exports.

In 2020, Ukraine exported about 28 million tons of corn, with a significant share going to the European Union, China and other Asian countries.

The country’s corn production has increased over the years, reaching a record 2020 million tons in 36,9.

Factors affecting demand

• Global Demand: Global demand for corn is driven by population growth, urbanization and increasing meat consumption. Demand for corn is expected to remain strong, particularly from countries such as China, Indonesia and other Asian countries.
• Trade Agreements: Recent trade agreements between Ukraine and the European Union as well as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) are expected to increase demand for Ukrainian corn.
• Competition: The global corn market is competitive, with major producers such as the United States, Brazil and Argentina. Ukraine’s competitive advantage lies in its proximity to European markets and lower production costs.
• Weather and climate change: Weather conditions such as droughts or excessive rainfall can impact corn yields and quality, impacting demand. Climate change can also lead to changes in global demand patterns.
• Ethanol production: Demand for corn as a feedstock for ethanol production is expected to increase, driven by increasing use of biofuels and government policies to promote clean energy.
• Livestock Industry: Demand for corn from the livestock industry, particularly poultry and pig farming, is expected to remain strong due to increasing meat consumption.

Forecast

Based on the above factors, here is a rough forecast of Ukrainian corn demand:

• Short term (2023-2025): Demand for Ukrainian corn is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase in exports to around 30-32 million tons per year.
• Medium term (2025-2030): Demand for Ukrainian corn is expected to grow, driven by increasing global demand and the country’s growing production capacity. Exports are expected to reach 35 to 40 million tons per year.
• Long term (2030-2040): Demand for Ukrainian corn is expected to continue to grow due to population growth, urbanization and increasing demand for biofuels, with exports expected to reach 45-50 million tons per year.

Eastern Europe

Corn growing area

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, the area under corn cultivation in Eastern Europe (excluding Russia and Ukraine) is estimated to be around 2023 million hectares in 2,3.

Here is a breakdown of the estimated corn acreage in some countries in Eastern Europe:

• Poland: 1,4 million hectares
• Romania: 440.000 hectares
• Hungary: 320.000 hectares
• Bulgaria: 240.000 hectares
• Czech Republic: 170.000 hectares
• Slovakia: 140.000 hectares
• Lithuania: 120.000 hectares
• Latvia: 90.000 hectares
• Estonia: 60.000 hectares
• Slovenia: 40.000 hectares

The most important types of corn grown in Eastern Europe

Poland

• Korona: A popular variety of corn known for its high yield and storage stability.
• Ludwik: A type of flint corn used for human consumption, animal feed, and ethanol production.
• Złota: A yellow variety of corn valued for its high starch content and resistance to disease.
• Czech Republic and Slovakia
• Bohemia: A popular variety of corn known for its high yield and storage stability.
• Slovak: A variety of flint corn used for human consumption and as animal feed.
• Elena: A yellow variety of corn valued for its high starch content and resistance to disease.

Hungary

• Hungarikus: A popular variety of corn known for its high yield and storage stability.
• Kiskun: A type of flint corn used for human consumption and animal feed.
• Szegedi: A yellow variety of corn valued for its high starch content and resistance to disease.

Romania

• Romagnola: A popular variety of corn known for its high yield and storage stability.
• Fundulea: A type of flint corn used for human consumption and as animal feed.
• Dacia: A yellow variety of corn valued for its high starch content and resistance to disease.

Bulgaria

• Balkan: A popular variety of corn known for its high yield and storage stability.
• Pazardzhik: A type of flint corn used for human consumption and as animal feed.
• Trakia: A yellow variety of corn valued for its high starch content and resistance to disease.

Serbia and North Macedonia

• Srem: A popular variety of corn known for its high yield and storage stability.
• Štip: A type of flint corn used for human consumption and as animal feed.
• Vardar: A yellow variety of corn valued for its high starch content and resistance to disease.

Quality indicators for corn grown in Eastern Europe

Poland

• Moisture content: 14-15%
• Protein content: 10-12%
• Starch content: 70-72%
• Oil content: 4-5%
• Crude fiber: 2-3%
• Density: 0,7-0,8 g/cm³
• Hardness: 70-80%
• Thousand grain weight: 350-400 g

Romania

• Moisture content: 13-14%
• Protein content: 9-11%
• Starch content: 68-70%
• Oil content: 3,5-4,5%
• Crude fiber: 2,5-3,5%
• Density: 0,65-0,75 g/cm³
• Hardness: 65-75%
• Thousand grain weight: 300-350 g

Hungary

• Moisture content: 12-13%
• Protein content: 9-11%
• Starch content: 70-72%
• Oil content: 4-5%
• Crude fiber: 2,5-3,5%
• Density: 0,7-0,8 g/cm³
• Hardness: 70-80%
• Thousand grain weight: 320-370 g

Slovakia

• Moisture content: 12-13%
• Protein content: 8-10%
• Starch content: 68-70%
• Oil content: 3,5-4,5%
• Crude fiber: 2,5-3,5%
• Density: 0,65-0,75 g/cm³
• Hardness: 65-75%
• Thousand grain weight: 290-340 g

Bulgaria

• Moisture content: 12-13%
• Protein content: 8-10%
• Starch content: 65-67%
• Oil content: 3,5-4,5%
• Crude fiber: 2,5-3,5%
• Density: 0,6-0,7 g/cm³
• Hardness: 60-70%
• Thousand grain weight: 270-320 g

Czech Republic

• Moisture content: 12-13%
• Protein content: 9-11%
• Starch content: 70-72%
• Oil content: 4-5%
• Crude fiber: 2,5-3,5%
• Density: 0,7-0,8 g/cm³
• Hardness: 70-80%
• Thousand grain weight: 310-360 g

Share of the world market

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, the main corn-growing countries in Eastern Europe are:

• Romania: Romania is the largest corn producer in Eastern Europe, accounting for about 30-40% of the region’s total corn production.
• Poland: Poland is the second largest corn producer in the region, accounting for approximately 20-30% of the region’s total corn production.
• Hungary: Hungary is also a major corn producer in the region, accounting for about 10-20% of the region’s total corn production.
• Bulgaria: Bulgaria is another major corn producer in the region, accounting for about 5-10% of the region’s total corn production.

In terms of exports, the share of Eastern European corn (with the exception of Russia and Ukraine) in the world market is relatively small. According to the International Grains Council (IGC), the region’s corn exports accounted for about 2020-21% of global corn exports in 2/3.

Here is a rough breakdown of Eastern European corn’s share of the global market:

• Romania: around 1% of global corn exports
• Poland: around 0,5% of global corn exports
• Hungary: around 0,3% of global corn exports
• Bulgaria: around 0,2% of global corn exports
• Other countries (e.g. Slovakia, Czech Republic, etc.): around 0,1% of global corn exports

Price dynamics

Here is an analysis of the dynamics of corn prices from Eastern Europe (except Russia and Ukraine) over the last five years:

• Poland: Corn prices in Poland have been relatively stable over the past five years, with a slight increase in 2019-2020. The average price in 2020 was around €170-180 per ton.
• Hungary: Hungarian corn prices were more volatile and recorded a significant decline in 2019 due to a record harvest. In 2020, prices recovered, reaching an average of €160-170 per ton.
• Romania: Romanian corn prices have risen steadily over the past five years due to growing demand and limited production. The average price in 2020 was around €190-200 per ton.
• Czech Republic: Corn prices in the Czech Republic have been relatively stable, with a slight increase in 2020. The average price was around €180-190 per ton.
• Slovakia: Slovakian corn prices were volatile and fell significantly in 2019. In 2020, prices recovered and reached an average of €160-170 per tonne.
• Bulgaria: Bulgarian corn prices have increased over the past five years, reflecting growing demand and limited production. The average price in 2020 was around €200-210 per ton.
• Serbia: Serbian corn prices were relatively stable, with a slight increase in 2020. The average price was around €180-190 per ton.

In summary, corn prices in Eastern Europe (excluding Russia and Ukraine) have been relatively stable over the past five years, with some fluctuations due to weather conditions, production levels and demand. The outlook is positive, driven by growing demand for sustainable and renewable energy sources, stable production levels and a favourable exchange rate environment.

Forecast of demand for corn from Eastern Europe

Corn demand in Eastern Europe (excluding Russia and Ukraine) is expected to remain stable, driven by a growing livestock sector and rising demand for biofuels. The region’s corn imports are expected to increase, driven by Poland, Hungary and Romania, which are the largest corn consumers in the region.

Country-specific demand forecast

• Poland: Poland is the largest consumer of corn in Eastern Europe, meeting about 40% of the region’s total demand. The country’s corn demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2023% from 2028 to 2,5, driven by a growing poultry industry and rising demand for biofuels.
• Hungary: Hungary is the second largest consumer of corn in the region, covering around 20% of the region’s total demand. The country’s corn demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2023% from 2028 to 2,2, driven by a growing livestock sector and rising demand for biofuels.
• Romania: Romania is the third largest consumer of corn in the region, covering around 15% of the region’s total demand. The country’s corn demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2023% from 2028 to 2,8, driven by a growing livestock sector and increasing demand for biofuels.
• Czech Republic: The Czech Republic’s corn demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2023% from 2028 to 2,0, driven by a growing livestock sector and increasing demand for biofuels.
• Slovakia: Corn demand in Slovakia is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2023% from 2028 to 2,5, driven by growing livestock production and increasing demand for biofuels.
• Bulgaria: Bulgaria’s corn demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2023% from 2028 to 3,0, driven by a growing livestock sector and rising demand for biofuels.

Total corn demand in Eastern Europe (excluding Russia and Ukraine) is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2023% from 2028 to 2,5, driven by a growing livestock sector and rising demand for biofuels. The region’s corn imports are expected to increase, driven by Poland, Hungary and Romania, which are the largest corn consumers in the region.