Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
In its latest assessment, the US Department of Agriculture has slightly lowered its forecast for the global soybean supply. Despite the correction, a record global harvest is expected according to UFOP, the association founded by the German Farmers’ Association for the Promotion of Oilseeds and Grains.
According to the association, the USDA is optimistic about the global soybean supply in the 2024/25 season and expects a production of 421.6 million tons, 26.4 million tons more than in the previous year. This means that more soybeans will be harvested worldwide than ever before. The forecast of the International Grains Council (IGC) was lower than the USDA’s estimate of 415.1 million tons. The USDA and IGC agree that higher production is to be expected in Brazil and the USA. The difference between the IGC and the USDA is due to different production estimates in Brazil. While the Grain Council forecasts a harvest of 161.5 million tons for 2025, the US authorities expect just under 169 million tons. Both estimates are still very vague, as the 2024 harvest was only recently completed and sowing for the 2025 harvest will not begin until two months later. Nevertheless, both the IGC and the USDA assume that the Brazilian acreage will increase due to strong local and international demand, particularly from the biofuel sector in North and South America.
Otherwise, according to the survey by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (mbH), the USDA has only made minor adjustments compared to the previous month.
Consumption for the 2024/25 season is now estimated at 401.5 million tons, almost unchanged from the previous month. This means that 19 million tons more soybeans will be consumed than last year.
The attractiveness of soybeans in crop rotation is likely to increase before sowing, particularly due to competitive producer prices compared to other crops. The ministry continues to expect global stocks at the end of the 2024/25 season to amount to 127.8 million tons, 16.5 million tons more than in the previous year. This would be well above the long-term average of 99.6 million tons.