Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
The latest grain market report from the International Grains Council (IGC), predicts that global soybean production in MY 2024/25 will increase by 5% year-on-year, driven by strong harvests in the US and Brazil. The report, released on February 20, estimates this year’s crop at a record 418 million tons, up from 396 million tons in the 2023/24 season.
“With growth spanning the feed, food and industrial sectors, record bean processing is expected, while stocks are recorded at a new high of 82 million tons, up 11% year-on-year,” World Grain cited the report as saying.
IGC also lowered its estimate for world grain (wheat and coarse grains) production in the 2024/25 season by 3 million tons from its January report to 2.301 billion tons. If this forecast is realized, the figure would be slightly below last year’s record 2.309 billion tons. The main change was for corn, due to a worsening outlook in South America, with sorghum forecasts lowered.
The forecast for total grain consumption is lowered to 2.334 billion tons, but still a record. Total ending stocks are estimated at 576 million tons, down 5% year-on-year and the lowest in a decade. Total grain trade was down 1 million tons from the previous month, driven by lower sorghum and wheat imports into China.
While wheat production (797 million tons) and consumption (806 million tons) in MY 2024/25 are expected to be little changed from January and the previous year, the Council forecasts an 8% decline in trade to 197 million tons.
Area under corn is projected to increase, including potential expansion in major exporting countries.
The global supply-demand balance for rice will be virtually unchanged in 2024-2025, with record production, consumption, and trade.
The Grains and Oilseeds Price Index (GOI) is 221. While average grain export quotations increased, rice and soybean prices mostly declined.