Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
Despite news of low yields in France, world wheat prices have fallen due to high harvest quotas and good winter wheat yields in the USA and Russia.
In the US, as of July 7, 63% of winter wheat has been harvested (52% of the 5-year average) and yields are above last year’s, while the number of spring wheat seeded in good to excellent condition increased by 3% over the week to 75% (47% last year), giving hope for a good harvest.
In the 2024/25 marketing year (June), the USA exported 1.73 million tons of wheat, 13.7% more than in the previous year.
In the south of Russia, the wheat harvest is in full swing and by 3 July, 13.1 million tons of wheat had been threshed on 2.95 million hectares, i.e. 10% of the area, with an average yield of 4.4 tons/hectare. Yields fell by 10% over the week, but are still 19% higher than at the same point in 2023.
Wheat futures for July fell yesterday:
- 3.6% to $203.2/tonne for Chicago soft red winter wheat SRW (-0.2% on the week),
- 3.9% to USD 210.7/tonne for Kansas City hard winter HRW wheat (-3.2% for the week),
- 2.6% to USD 226.9/ton for hard spring HRW wheat in Minneapolis (+0.7%),
- 3.2% to 221.25 euros/tonne or USD 239.6/tonne for September wheat futures on Euronext Paris (-1.6%).
According to forecasts by the Intercereales Group and the Arvalis harvest institute, wheat yields in France in 2024 will fall by 13% year-on-year to their lowest level since 2016 due to excessively wet weather and will be 11% below the 10-year average at 6.4 tons/hectare. However, this news has not supported European wheat prices.