Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
Wheat production in Russia has fallen for the third year in a row after a lack of rain delayed sowing, reports Bloomberg.
According to the consulting firm SovEcon, the 2025 wheat harvest is expected to be 80.1 million tons. This would be the smallest harvest since the 2021/22 season and would put further pressure on already tight global stocks.
“The country’s high yields have helped to alleviate supply problems in recent years, after other major growing regions such as the US and Europe recorded low production. The market dominance of cheap Russian crops has helped push prices to a record high in 2022 and continues to weigh on global futures markets,” the publication writes.
However, the dry weather has significantly delayed sowing, which is likely to lead to a reduction in acreage and lower yields next season.
Although the production forecast is nine months ahead of the harvest, the unfavorable conditions could continue to slow down development. Nevertheless, the consulting firm ICAR expects production of 81 to 85 million tons after the recent rains.
“The poor condition of winter wheat gives rise to concerns about an increased risk of crop failure in winter,” wrote Andrey Sizov, Managing Director of SovEcon.