Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
European wheat futures rose on Thursday as traders discussed possible Russian export restrictions, although prices fell after Moscow lowered its crop estimate relatively slightly due to unfavorable weather conditions.
December wheat futures on the Paris-based Euronext exchange rose 1.1 percent to 231.25 euros ($252.18) per metric ton.
Sources reported that the Russian agriculture ministry had called grain exporters to a meeting on Friday, adding to speculation that Moscow would limit exports after ample supplies this season.
“Tomorrow’s meeting to discuss Russian exports could be a major turning point,” UK trader ADM Agriculture said in a note. “Any restriction would support the market.”
Large Russian supplies have kept international prices in check in recent months. However, with the drought making it difficult to sow next year’s Russian crop, rumors are growing about possible export restrictions to protect domestic supplies.
“Markets will be watching for signs that the Russian authorities are warning exporters to slow down their shipments, otherwise they could face measures such as tightening minimum export prices and quotas or the denial of phytosanitary certificates (for food),” said a German trader.
Concerns over Russian supplies were eased by an updated crop estimate on Thursday, in which Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev said the government now expected production of 83 million tons of wheat in 2024, down only slightly from the previous forecast of 84 million tons.
Traders had expected a more significant revision to forecasts after unfavorable weather conditions, including heavy rains, forced several Russian regions to declare a state of emergency for agriculture.
The market was also watching the wet weather in Western Europe, which slowed down the wheat sowing and corn harvest.
Concerns centered on France, where a storm that began on Wednesday caused localized flooding, while field conditions in Germany were seen as less of a concern.