Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) reports a projected decrease of 4.11% in China’s soybean production for MY 2025/26, bringing the total to 19.8 million tons.
The National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China has indicated that, for MY 2024/25, soybean production reached 20.65 million tons, representing a 0.9% decrease compared to the previous season. This reduction in output has been attributed to a decrease in the area planted, despite improvements in yields, which increased from 1.99 to 2 tons per hectare.
From October 2024 to February 2025, the average price per ton was 4,007 yuan ($564), marking a 16% decline from the same timeframe last year. The trend of significantly lower domestic purchase prices has persisted over the past two years.
Experts predict that import requirements for most oilseeds and oilseed products during the 2024/25 season will drop below the average figures of recent years, owing to robust domestic production and ongoing economic challenges. Soybean imports are anticipated to total 106 million tons, a slight increase from the 104 million tons forecast, yet still below the record 122 million tons achieved in MY 23/24.
To avert a contraction in soybean production, the government is likely to continue providing subsidies or slightly increase compensation for local soybean farmers in the 2025/26 season, as suggested by the USDA’s FAS. The five-year plan targets an increase in domestic production to 23 million tons by 2025.
In recent years, the Chinese government has aimed to boost domestic soybean production to lessen reliance on imports. However, the limited availability of farmland restricts the potential for further expansions in soybean cultivation, which may come at the expense of corn farming.
Additionally, two significant factors undermining the demand for soybeans in China are the general economic slowdown and the government’s initiatives to curb the need for soybean meal.