Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
US tariff volatility grain trade expert Mel Bostanji notes that the US Supreme Court’s decision has stripped US tariffs of an important legal basis. Moreover, this does not mean they have been repealed. According to her, the court blocked the use of the IEEPA as a tariff instrument. Consequently, this shifts part of the current tariff architecture from the realm of “policy” to the realm of litigation risk.
US Tariff Volatility Grain Trade: Financial and Legal Implications
Bostanji noted that significant amounts of already paid tariffs could be at risk. Furthermore, according to estimates cited by Reuters, potential refunds could reach approximately $175 billion. This depends on the structure of the review decisions and judicial proceedings. At the same time, she emphasized, the key question is not the potential compensation. Rather, it is the mechanism that will be applied going forward.
Alternative Instruments and Market Impact
In her opinion, the US administration may reorient itself toward other legal instruments. Specifically, these include Section 232 (national security), Section 301 (unfair trade practices), or Section 122 (temporary import surcharges). For physical trade in grain, oilseeds, and feed crops, this means increased volatility in forward pricing. Additionally, it brings changes in CIF economics and origin arbitrage. Furthermore, it requires increased attention to contractual terms. “Markets can operate with high duties, but they struggle to function under an unstable tariff structure,” Bostanji emphasized.