Source: APKinform (Ukraine)
Ukraine wheat exports 2025/26 may reach 17.6 million tons, according to the results of the marketing year. Moreover, this represents 11.5% more than in the previous season. This forecast was announced by analysts from the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club association.
Ukraine Wheat Exports 2025/26: Previous Season Comparison and Recovery
“In 2024/25 MY, exports decreased to 15.8 million tons (a drop of 15.1%). Furthermore, the main reason is the lack of carryover stocks at the beginning of the season due to the organization of exports via its own sea route. However, already in 2025/26 MY, the increase in harvest will allow export volumes to grow to 17.6 million tons,” the UACB said in a statement.
As experts noted, wheat production is gradually recovering. Additionally, the harvest in 2025/26 MY is estimated at 23.1 million tons, which is 2.9% more than in the previous season, but 6.2% less than the average for the previous five years.
Acreage, Yield, and Weather Challenges
“The increase in acreage is offset by weather challenges. Consequently, the gross harvest was increased thanks to the growth of the sown area to 5.1 million hectares (4.8% compared to the previous season). However, due to difficult weather conditions, the average wheat yield has decreased slightly and stands at 4.5 tons/hectare (1.7% less than last year),” they noted.
Domestic Demand and Consumption Trends
Among the key trends of the season, the UAC also noted the continued decline in domestic demand for wheat in Ukraine. Furthermore, this is associated with the temporary occupation of part of the territory and the forced migration of the population due to hostilities. Total consumption of Ukrainian grain in 2025/26 MY is estimated at 6.2 million tons. Specifically, food consumption will account for about 3.7 million tons, and feed use for 1.5 million tons. The use of grain for seeds will also decrease from 986,000 tons to 825,000 tons.
“In conclusion, it can be said that the Ukrainian wheat market is demonstrating adaptability. Despite demographic challenges and weather conditions, farmers are managing to increase their acreage. Domestic needs are fully met, and the successful operation of export routes allows for the restoration of positive supply dynamics and guarantees Ukraine’s stable presence in key markets in Europe, Africa, and Asia,” the report concludes.
