Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
The Ukrainian industry agency ASAP Agri has raised its forecast for the Ukrainian soybean harvest in 2024 to a historic high of 5.7 million tons despite the drought. The reason for this is the expansion of the area under cultivation to a record 2.63 million hectares, according to Ukraine’s state statistics service. The USDA estimates the area under beans in the country at 2.9 million hectares.
The problem will be the distribution of soybeans between exporters and processors. Exports will exceed 3.1 million tons, which is a record. Processing also has a great chance of exceeding 1.9 million tons and setting a record.
Given the high expectations for soybean production in Ukraine and the declining global soybean balance, sellers of Ukrainian soybeans of the new crop as of August 16, 2024 have lowered their prices for October delivery to USD 420/ton CIF Marmara and USD 430/ton CIF Egypt. In comparison: At the beginning of July, offers for soybeans from the new harvest were still at USD 470/ton CIF Egypt.
Previously, the Ukrainian Ministry of Agrarian Policy had forecast a soybean harvest of 5 million tons for the 2024/25 marketing year and indicated that this would be a record figure in Ukraine’s history. Ukraine expects to produce 22 million tons of oilseeds. In particular, rapeseed production is estimated at 4 million tons and sunflower production at around 13 million tons.