Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
In the marketing year 2024/25 (as of March 1), Ukraine’s sunflower oil exports saw a year-over-year decline of 24%, totaling 2.4 million tons, marking the lowest figure for this period since the marketing year 2016/17.
European Union nations continued to be the predominant consumers of Ukrainian oil, representing 54% of all exports. Notably, India emerged as the leading importer of domestic sunflower oil for the first time in three seasons, acquiring 417,000 tons—five times the amount purchased during the same timeframe last year.
February witnessed a 14% decrease in sunflower oil exports, falling to 325,000 tons compared to January, the lowest figure recorded for the month in a decade.
Overall, the outlook for oil exports remains bleak, as Ukrainian processors struggle to maintain sufficient raw material inventories for sustained operations over several months. This has resulted in processing margins dropping to zero or even turning negative amid significant price volatility.
In Ukraine, the weekly demand prices for sunflower oil declined by $5 to $10 per ton, settling between $1,110 and $1,115 per ton with delivery to Black Sea ports, influenced by decreasing prices for palm and soybean oil, alongside a slump in oil quotations.
Conversely, processors are maintaining elevated purchase prices for sunflowers with an oil content of 50%, ranging from 26,500 to 27,500 UAH per ton delivered to the plant, with hopes for a rebound in oil prices in the latter half of the season.
The new U.S. Administration continues to cause instability in global trade. Analysts have begun discussing a potential recession in the U.S. economy, which has resulted in another decline in oil prices, now at $70 per barrel, showing a 7.9% drop over the month.
On Friday, palm oil futures on the Bursa exchange increased by 3.2%, reaching a two-week high of 4,625 ringgit per metric ton, or $1,044 per metric ton, in anticipation of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) report expected in March.
May soybean oil futures on the Chicago exchange experienced an additional weekly decline of 1.6%, settling at $956 per metric ton, down 6.5% for the month. Trading commenced on Monday with further decreases.
The upcoming sunflower harvest, along with anticipated increases in sunflower oil offerings from Argentina in the months ahead, may fulfill the requirements of importers, particularly India, thereby restricting short-term price appreciation. Additionally, the USDA is scheduled to release updates on global balances this week, which may result in lowered projections for worldwide vegetable oil demand and an increase in stockpile forecasts.