Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
On March 25, a new set of discussions took place in Saudi Arabia involving representatives from Ukraine, the United States, and Russia.
The representatives from the U.S. and Russia reached an agreement to facilitate safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent military utilization of commercial vessels in the Black Sea, which Ukraine also endorsed. Furthermore, all parties concurred on the necessity of formulating measures to enforce the agreement that prohibits attacks on energy infrastructure in both Ukraine and Russia.
President Trump pledged to “reintroduce Russia to the global market for agricultural products and fertilizer exports, lower marine insurance expenses, and enhance access to ports and payment systems for these transactions.” This announcement resulted in a decline in gas and fertilizer prices within the EU, as Russia was already exporting its agricultural goods relatively unimpeded.
To bring an end to the ceasefire in the Black Sea, the Russian Federation articulated several demands: the removal of sanctions on Rosselkhozbank and other banks linked to fertilizer and food exports, as well as on companies involved in the production and shipping of these goods. Additionally, they sought permission to service such vessels in ports and access to equipment and materials necessary for food and fertilizer production in Russia.
The global community regarded the outcome of these negotiations as a defeat for the U.S. British financier Bill Browder commented to Sky News that the aggressor, due to its audacity, obtained concessions in the form of eased sanctions, thereby enabling it to persist in its aggressive actions.
“While the refineries in Russia are protected, Ukrainian towns will continue to suffer. I firmly believe that Russia will maintain its strikes on Ukrainian civilian areas since it has gained safeguards for its oil refineries, which serve as funding sources for the war. Easing certain sanctions against Russia cannot be viewed as an adequate response to a nation responsible for thousands of deaths and trillions of dollars in damages, making any cause for celebration unfounded,” concluded Browder.
The Telegraph described the discussions between the U.S. and Russia as a procedural deadlock rather than a diplomatic success.
According to Politico, Trump has handed Putin seven advantages during the negotiations involving Russia: phone calls to Putin, discussions with Russia that exclude Ukraine, demands directed at Ukraine for concessions, pressure exerted on Ukraine, delays in negotiations concerning security guarantees and NATO for Ukraine, a lack of discourse regarding Russia’s accountability for its aggression, and attributing blame for the conflict to “both sides.”
In a piece for the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), O’Sullivan points out that since February 2022, sanctions have resulted in Russia losing over $450 billion in revenue, an amount equivalent to its military expenditures over three years of conflict.
Furthermore, Interfax from Russia indicates that “the U.S. will assist Russia in regaining access to the global market for fertilizers and agricultural products, help lower shipping insurance costs, and enhance access to ports and payment systems for transactions related to fertilizers and agricultural goods.”
It is significant to highlight that the U.S. cannot swiftly lift sanctions on Russia without the collaboration of the EU and the UK, thus their stance on Russia will be crucial, and it is hoped that their position aligns with that of Ukraine.
