Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
Global wheat production will amount to 789.1 million tons in 2024, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) predicts in a new report on the grain market; the forecast for Russia is significantly worsened in the report, – Kommersant reports.
In recent months, it had been assumed that the figure would fall this year. According to current forecasts, however, the wheat harvest could be higher than last year’s 788.1 million tons. Production growth is forecast for the leading wheat-growing countries:
China – 139 million tons in 2024 after 136.6 million in 2023
India – 113 million tons after 110.6 million tons
USA – 51 million tons after 49.3 million tons
Other important producers are expected to perform worse than last year. In the European Union, the harvest forecast is 128 million tons, 5% below the average of the last three years (133.6 million tons in 2023). The main reasons for this are the drought in southern Europe and record rainfall in the north.
Russia could harvest 84 million tons of wheat; annual production of 93.6 million tons was expected in March. The FAO forecasts are in line with the domestic harvest: the think tank Sovecon assumes that the Russian wheat harvest will amount to 84.1 million tons, while the Institute for Agricultural Market Conditions (IKAR) forecasts 82 million tons.
Kommersant notes that Russian farmers’ losses due to bad weather in the second half of the new season could be partially offset by a slight increase in export prices, which the FAO predicts against the backdrop of tight supplies. According to the organization’s forecasts, Russia will be able to export 46.5 million tonnes of wheat at the beginning of the season (the forecast for total grain exports is 60 million tonnes). According to preliminary estimates, Russia exported significantly more last season due to a record harvest, namely 55.4 million tons of wheat.