Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
Strategie Grains has again lowered its monthly forecasts for this year’s rapeseed and sunflower harvests in the EU as unfavorable weather conditions continue to affect the EU’s main oilseed crops, the consultancy said.
The company lowered its forecast for the EU rapeseed harvest in 2024 for the third time in a row. It estimated production at 17.27 million tons, down from a forecast of 17.80 million tons a month ago and now almost 14% below last year’s level.
Expected production was revised downwards, particularly in Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and Romania, due to both low yields and reduced acreage, according to the summary of the EU oilseeds report.
The rapeseed harvest in Europe is in its final phase.
Analysts are forecasting a decline in the EU rapeseed harvest after several months of heavy rain, including in France, where the Ministry of Agriculture believes production could fall by almost 8 percent.
For sunflower seeds, which are harvested in late summer and autumn, Strategie Grains has lowered its EU forecast for the second month in a row and now expects a harvest of 9.65 million tons compared to 10.49 million tons previously.
The drastic correction of the forecast is below last year’s production of 9.80 million tons.
After a rainy spring, sunflower crops in Eastern Europe experienced a hot and dry start to the summer. Strategie Grains has lowered its expectations for Romania and Bulgaria, and to a lesser extent for Hungary, as the weather in July is likely to have a negative impact on yields.
Last week, the European Commission also lowered its monthly forecasts for EU rapeseed and sunflower production and now expects harvests of 18.38 million and 10.14 million tons respectively.
As for the smaller EU soybean crop, Strategie Grains has left its forecast for 2024 unchanged at 2.99 million tons, an increase of 4.6% compared to the previous year, when higher plantings are expected to compensate for lower yields.
Strategie Grains expects rapeseed and sunflower stocks in the EU to be tight in 2024/25, although forecast import volumes have been revised upwards, which should lead to higher prices than previously expected.
However, uncertainty over the impact of the upcoming EU regulation on deforestation, which will particularly affect soybean and palm oil imports, could lead to volatility in the oilseed markets in the short term, the agency added.