Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
Ukrainian soybean exports saw a decline of 35% this month, totaling 214,000 tons from March 1 to 19, as reported by customs data. This downturn is largely attributed to a significant drop in demand from Egypt, which is a key buyer for Ukraine.
Participants in the market have observed that last month, Egypt made substantial purchases from both Ukraine and the U.S. With projections of an unprecedented soybean harvest in Brazil for 2025, global competition is becoming more intense, despite varying local forecasts.
Traders have indicated that Egyptian processors are now favoring U.S. soybeans over those from Ukraine due to economic considerations. For instance, recent offers for shipments of U.S. soybeans on a Panamax-class vessel were priced at $425 per ton CIF Egypt, whereas shipments of Ukrainian soybeans were slightly higher at $427 per ton CIF. Additionally, Brazilian soybeans are making their way into the global market at even more competitive prices due to the country’s peak harvest season.
There remains potential for improvement in the European market. Should the proposed tariffs on U.S. soybeans be enacted, demand for Ukrainian soybeans in the EU could rise. Although a decision has been delayed, analysts note that the EU is currently the largest importer of Ukrainian soybeans, comprising approximately 44% (1 million tons) of total exports from September 2024 to February 2025.
In previous reports, the Foreign Agricultural Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS USDA) indicated an expected increase in the demand and processing of soybeans and canola in China for the 2024/25 season. It is anticipated that China will import 106 million tons of soybeans in 2025/26, reflecting a 2% increase from the estimated 104 million tons in 2024/25.
