Source: Zerno.ru (Russia)
SovEcon has revised its predictions for Russian wheat exports for the 2024/25 crop year (July 2024-June 2025), decreasing them by 0.6 million tons to 42.2 million tons, while simultaneously increasing the estimate for 2025/26 by the same figure to 38.9 million tons, as reported by Interfax. This adjustment in the current season’s forecast was attributed to low export volumes and diminished profitability in exports.
In February, exports were recorded at just 2 million tons, a significant drop from 4.1 million tons during the same month the previous year and below the five-year average of 2.9 million tons. Exporters are currently operating at a loss, and since February 15, Russia has imposed a wheat export quota of 10.6 million tons. Major exporters are delaying shipments, anticipating an improvement in margins, which could result in underutilization of the set quota.
The slowdown in export activity has contributed to the increase in global wheat prices, which have risen by $12 to reach $248/t (FOB) since the start of the year. “SovEcon” observes that factors such as domestic shortages, a strong ruble, and exporters’ negative margins will limit supplies, likely maintaining upward pressure on world prices through the end of the season.