Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
According to official statistics, 231.2 thousand tons (-26% from 2022) will be harvested in Ukraine in 2023 on 79.3 thousand hectares (-12%) with an average yield of 2.94 tons/hectare (-5%). This is reported on the Facebook page KWS UKRAINE, citing analysts from UkrAgroConsult.
The reduction in acreage was caused by purely economic conditions: lack of export demand and competition with more profitable crops. The general trend of shifting acreage to the west of the country also applies to rye. For the 2024 harvest, the largest areas were concentrated in the Rivne and Volyn oblasts. In contrast to the previous year, the three largest areas were in the Chernihiv oblast, where more rye was grown than in the Zhytomyr oblast.
The prospects for the future harvest are positive, but slightly worse than last year. Although the winter was mild, growing conditions are inconsistent in all regions except the west of the country due to the lack of spring moisture.
Unfortunately, the Ministry of Agricultural Policy does not provide operational data on the rye harvest. However, for the other winter cereals, yields of wheat and barley are worse than last year, even if they are in line with long-term averages.
UkrAgroConsult leaves its estimate for the rye harvest in Ukraine in 2024 unchanged at 205,000 tons. Taking into account the transitional residues and lower domestic consumption, this quantity should be sufficient to cover domestic demand, but exports are unlikely to be significant. In the 2023/24 marketing year, only 1.5 thousand tons of rye were exported, which is significantly less than in the previous year. Exports from Ukraine will also remain low next season, although demand could increase.
The European Commission anticipates a slight decline in the EU’s own rye harvest to 7.34 million tons (-1%) due to lower yields in Poland and Romania. And given the decline in transitional residues, this volume will probably not be sufficient to cover domestic consumption. There are already signs of a price increase on the European market, which is likely to continue in the near future.