Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
“SovEcon has lowered its forecast for Russian wheat production in the current marketing year by 1.8 million tons to 82.9 million tons,” reports Agroexpert.
“The wheat harvest is expected to be well below last year’s 92.8 million tons and the 86.7 million tons of the 5-year average. The forecast reflects Rosstat’s low estimate for sown areas as well as lower yields in a number of regions,” the report said.
Rosstat estimated the area planted with wheat at 28.5 million hectares compared to 29.8 million hectares last year and 29.2 million hectares according to SovEcon.
The acreage in the Siberian Federal District was revised the most. Wheat acreage amounted to 9.8 million hectares compared to an estimate of 10.6 million hectares, which could be due to an increase in rapeseed acreage.
The forecast for wheat production in the center and south was lowered by 0.7 million tons to 17.5 million tons and 32.5 million tons respectively, while for the Volga region it was lowered by 0.5 million tons to 18.3 million tons. “In the first two regions, one of the reasons for revising the forecast was the lower-than-expected yields,” the analysts explained.
Yield estimates for the center and south were lowered by 0.1 tons per hectare to 3.8 tons per hectare and 3.7 tons per hectare, respectively, due to the dry weather in these regions.
“Below-average wheat production could lead to lower exports in 2024-2025, which could support wheat prices later in the season,” the study said.
In July, Sovecon raised its forecast for grain production by 3.1 million tons to 130.5 million tons. The estimate was then revised against the backdrop of improved prospects for the harvest of winter and spring crops. The forecast for wheat production was then raised by a total of 3.5 million tons to 84.2 million tons.
