Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
Russian grain exports falling trends are evident as grain exports from Russia decreased by 16.3% in July–January 2025/26. Moreover, this decline compares to the same period last season. The volume of shipments amounted to 36.9 million tons. Wheat traditionally accounted for the bulk of exports, making up 78% of the total volume. Furthermore, its shipments abroad fell by 12% year-on-year to 28.6 million tons, according to data from consulting company Strategy Partners, as reported by Kommersant.
Russian Grain Exports Falling: Key Factors and Market Competition
Analysts highlight several key factors that contributed to the decline. First and foremost is the record supply on the global market. Additionally, high wheat yields in competing countries, including the EU, Australia, and Argentina, led to an intensification of the price war and a redistribution of flows. Against this backdrop, Russian wheat was supplied to 49 countries in the current season. Meanwhile, this compares to 69 a year earlier.
The main importer of Russian wheat, Egypt, reduced its purchases by 21% (to 5.35 million tons). Consequently, combined with export quotas, this does not allow us to expect a repeat of the record season of 2023/24 (55.5 million tons), the publication reports.
Positive January Trends and Future Outlook
Despite the negative trend, January 2026 showed positive dynamics: wheat exports grew by 18% (to 2.8 million tons). Therefore, this gives grounds for optimistic forecasts for the second half of the agricultural year.
According to estimates by Konstantin Vlasov, project manager of Strategy Partners’ Consumer Sector and Agribusiness practice, wheat exports may exceed last year’s level (42.2 million tons) and reach 45 million tons by the end of the 2025/26 season. Furthermore, in a favorable scenario, growth to 50 million tons is possible.
The growth will be driven by an increase in export quotas: due to the record harvest, the government has doubled the limits on exports of wheat, meslin, barley, and corn from 10.6 to 20 million tons.
Earlier, it was announced that grain export duties would remain at zero for the seventh week in a row.