Source: Zerno.ru (Russia)
Following a downward adjustment last week, export prices for Russian wheat with a protein content of 12.5% have risen to their highest point in nearly ten months, reaching $255 per ton FOB, which is an increase of $7 per ton. This marks the highest level since the significant crop damage caused by late frosts at the end of May 2024, according to the Rusagrotrans analytical center, which is part of Demetra-Holding. Prices for wheat from competing nations also saw an uptick: Romanian wheat increased slightly to $255 per ton (+$0.5 per ton), French wheat rose to $249 per ton (+$2 per ton), American wheat climbed to $243 per ton (+$1 per ton), Argentine wheat reached $243 per ton (+$2 per ton), and Australian wheat rose to $248 per ton (+$3 per ton).
This market growth has been attributed to Turkey’s announcement of a cancellation of its previous wheat import policy that required 75% domestic wheat purchases, allowing for a return to a licensing system facilitating duty-free wheat imports for export as flour. Nonetheless, a significant rise in imports from Turkey, which usually sources from Russia, is not anticipated; projections for April-May 2025 suggest imports might not exceed 1.4 million tons, mirroring last year’s figures for the same period.
Additionally, Iran has resumed wheat purchases after a lengthy hiatus, likely acquiring around 0.5 million tons of primarily Russian wheat, following a break since October 2024. In the United States, the proportion of winter wheat acreage affected by drought has risen to 34%, an increase from 27% the previous week and a notable rise from 13% a year earlier.
In Russia, unusually warm and dry conditions are expected to persist for the next two weeks across most areas in the South and parts of the Central Federal District, which could negatively impact crop development.
In deep-water ports, wheat prices (class 4, 12.5% protein) have fallen to 17,300-17,800 rubles per ton excluding VAT (-250 rubles compared to last week), while shallow-water prices dropped to 16,300 rubles per ton (-400 rubles). Overall purchasing activity remains low. Rail delivery prices to Novorossiysk have also decreased to 18,400-18,800 rubles per ton (-150 rubles).
The domestic wheat market continues to decline in southern regions and Siberia while remaining stable in the Center and Volga regions. In the South, prices for class 4 wheat (12.5% protein, EXW elevator) have fallen to 15,700-16,300 rubles per ton excluding VAT (-150 rubles), with prices in the Center holding steady at 15,700-16,100 rubles per ton and in the Volga region at 15,800-16,200 rubles per ton. Prices in Siberia for class 4 wheat have weakened to 11,000-12,000 rubles per ton (-150 rubles).