Source: Zerno.ru (Russia)
For the first time since late January, export prices for Russian wheat (12.5% protein) intended for March delivery decreased to $248 per ton FOB (-$2 per ton), influenced by competition from wheat produced in Europe, Australia, and Argentina, as reported by the analytical center of Rusagrotrans, a part of Demetra-Holding. Meanwhile, prices for Romanian wheat increased to $248.5 per ton (+$4.5 per ton), French wheat reached $241.5 per ton (+$4.5 per ton), Argentine wheat rose to $242 per ton (+$1 per ton), and Australian wheat dropped to $246 per ton (-$2 per ton).
The wheat exchange market was showing signs of partial recovery following its earlier decline earlier in the week.
Syria has issued a tender for the procurement of 100,000 tons of wheat, with delivery expected within 30 days of contract signing. Additionally, Tunisia purchased 25,000 tons of wheat at $262.12 per ton C&F, with scheduled delivery from March 25 to April 15.
China has implemented a 15% duty on imports of U.S. wheat. In recent years, China imported significant quantities of wheat from the United States, ranging from 1 to 2 million tons per season out of an overall total of 13-14 million tons. Nonetheless, the primary sources of wheat for China remain Australia, Canada, and EU nations. This season, however, imports from these sources have sharply declined due to a record domestic harvest, with China acquiring around 1 million tons from main suppliers over the past eight months, including 275,000 tons from Russia, surpassing the 147,000 tons imported from the U.S. Canada has sent approximately 500,000 tons thus far this season, while shipments from the EU and Australia have been minimal.
Wheat prices (grade 4, 12.5% protein) at deep-water ports dropped to between 17,900 and 18,100 rubles per ton, excluding VAT, reflecting a decrease of 100 rubles per ton from the previous week, as purchasing activity remains low. The CPT Novorossiysk prices for rail delivery were noted at 18,550-19,150 rubles per ton (-150 rubles per ton).
Revised statistics indicate that wheat exports in February 2025 (including those to EAEU countries) totaled 2.06 million tons. The projection for March 2025 wheat exports has been lowered from 1.5-1.6 million tons to between 1.4-1.5 million tons, compared to 4.74 million tons shipped in March 2024. This downward revision is attributed to a lack of new sales alongside negative export yields and stagnant pricing conditions.
Overall, exports for the 2024/2025 season are still projected at 40.5 million tons, which is below the five-year average of 42.4 million tons.
