Source: Zerno.ru (Russia)
Grain market experts have made the first estimates of the size of the grain export quota that will be in effect in Russia from 15 February to 30 June 2025. Depending on the pace of exports in the coming months, the most likely forecast is 10-12 million tonnes, with a range of estimates from 5 million to 17 million tonnes.
‘Most likely, the quota volume could be 11-12 million tonnes, but everything will depend on the export pace in November-January,’ market expert Alexander Korbut said, Interfax reported.
According to him, the pace of exports is slowing down. ‘About 1.5 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops were shipped from November 1-12, including 1.4 million tonnes of wheat. This allows us to forecast November exports of no more than 5.2 million tonnes. In October it was 6.2 million tonnes. And if wheat shipments in November increased, then barley and corn – sharply decreased and amounted to 69.7 thousand and 29.9 thousand tonnes, respectively,’ he said.
Korbut believes that ‘we should not expect export records in December-January either’.
His export forecast for the current agricultural season (July 2024-June 2025) is 55-58 million tonnes, including 48-49 million tonnes of wheat. ‘Now it is necessary to put a rather wide ‘fork’ in the estimates, because much will depend on the world market conditions,’ the expert said.
‘If exports are active, the quota could be in the region of 5-6 million tonnes. But high rates are doubtful, so as the most realistic option we can talk about 10 million tonnes,’ said Vladimir Petrichenko, general director of ProZerno.
Dmitry Rylko, director general of the Institute for Agricultural Market Conjuncture (ICAR), tentatively estimates the size of the quota at 11.5-12 million tonnes. ‘The calculation is made based on export rates, crop estimates and domestic needs,’ he said, recalling that ICAR forecasts this year’s grain harvest at 125 million tonnes (without new regions) and export potential at 50.5 million tonnes.
Pavel Konev, IT director of the export holding company Delivery by Sea, said that grain exports from July 1 to November 3 amounted to 25.8 million tonnes, which corresponds to 46% of the export potential for the season and is very close to the figure for the same period last year – 26.4 million tonnes. Although this year’s crop estimate is lower than last year’s, he noted.
‘If in the next 3.5 months exports fall to the level of 4 million tonnes per month, then by February 15 the export potential will be selected for 40 million tonnes, so 15-17 million tonnes may remain under the quota. If suddenly we continue to export 6 million tonnes a month, the quota may be 10 million tonnes,’ he said.
The Russian Federation began to quota grain exports in 2020. Restrictions were imposed from April 1 to June 30 and amounted to 7 million tonnes. From February 15 to June 30, 2021, a new quota was in effect, its volume was 17.5 million tonnes. At the end of 2021, the government decided that the quota would be annual with a validity period from 15 February to 30 June.
In 2022, it was 11 million tonnes, including 8 million tonnes of wheat. In 2023, it will be 25.5 million tonnes, with no breakdown by grain type. The quota for 2024 was 28 million tonnes (first approved at 24 million tonnes, then a decision was made on an additional quota of 4 million tonnes), it also did not provide for a species division of grain.
As Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut reported in an interview with Vedomosti a week ago, last year’s quota was selected by 76%. In 2025, the share of those companies that did not fully utilise the quota will be proportionally reduced through a correction factor, she said.
The Ministry of Agriculture estimates the export potential for grain this season at 60 million tonnes. Last year, Russia exported 72.2 million tonnes of grain, including 54.1 million tonnes of wheat.
The grain harvest in 2023 was 144.9 million tonnes (92.8 million tonnes of wheat). This year’s official forecast is 130 million tonnes (83 million tonnes of wheat).