Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
According to the latest estimate by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the global sunflower seed harvest is likely to be lower than previously expected. Harvests are declining in the EU and Ukraine in particular.
The USDA’s current estimate for 2024/25 assumes a global sunflower seed production of 50.6 million tons, which is significantly lower than the last estimate from August (52.5 million tons). This would be the smallest harvest in four years. This means that the global supply of sunflowers is 5.3 million tons lower than in the previous year.
According to research by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (mbH), the main reason for the correction is the expected smaller harvests in the EU and Ukraine. In the EU, the US authorities are forecasting a volume of 9.5 million tons, around 650,000 tons less than previously expected and 500,000 tons less than in 2023. In addition to the reduced acreage, the lower yields are also having an impact. Production of 12.5 million tons is forecast for Ukraine. The USDA has thus lowered its estimate by 1 million tons compared to the previous month, as the persistent drought and heat in recent months are likely to have reduced yield potential.
Russian production is likely to remain unchanged from the August forecast at 16 million tons, around 1.1 million tons less than in the 2023/24 marketing year. According to the Union for the Promotion of Oilseeds and Cereals (UFOP), the country thus remains the world’s most important supplier of sunflower seed.
In the first eight months of 2024, OleoScope analysts estimated that oilseed exports fell by 33% year-on-year to 1.93 million tons. Exports of sunflower seed in particular totalled 186,000 tons from January to August 2024, 13% less than in the same period in 2023. More than 85% of the seed went to EAEU countries.