Source: Zerno.ru (Russia)
Russia shipped 4.09 million tons of the main types of grain for export from 1 to 20 September, which is 18.7% less than in the same period last year, Interfax reported, citing observations by the Russian Grain Union.
“The decline in shipments continues. Thus, 3,753,000 tons of wheat were shipped for export during this period, which is 10.8% less than last year,” said Elena Tyurina, head of the Union’s analytical department.
According to her data, barley shipments decreased by 2.6 times, to 257,000 tons against 658,000 tons from September 1 to 20, 2023. Corn shipments decreased by half – to 82 thousand tons against 166 thousand tons.
Wheat was exported to 30 countries during this period, compared to 46 a year ago. “This means that the geographical distribution of shipments has decreased. For example, no wheat has been shipped to Mexico, Indonesia, Sudan and Pakistan since the beginning of September. A year ago, these countries were buying significant quantities during this period,” says the expert.
The largest buyer was Egypt, which increased its purchases by 23.6% to more than 1 million tons compared to 866,000 tons in the previous year. “These are deliveries as part of the fulfillment of contracts that were concluded as part of tenders in August,” says Tjurina.
In addition, since the beginning of September, deliveries to Algeria have increased 2.6-fold to 306 thousand tons, to Kenya by 1.7-fold to 186 thousand tons and to the United Arab Emirates by almost double to 131 thousand tons. “A significant quantity – 138 thousand tons – was delivered to Nigeria. Last season, no Russian wheat was delivered to this country during this period. It is also worth noting the significant volume of deliveries to Syria – 111 thousand tons, a year ago this country was not among the buyers”, – said the expert.
At the same time, according to the monitoring, 108 thousand tons of wheat were shipped to Turkey, which is 70% less than a year ago. “These are transit shipments, as Turkey still has a ban on wheat imports,” said Tjurina.
In addition, deliveries to Bangladesh fell by 60 percent, to Saudi Arabia by 48 percent and to Brazil by 40 percent.
According to Tyurina, the largest buyer of barley from September 1 to 20 was Tunisia with 75,000 tons. A year ago, there were no deliveries to this country. “At the same time, deliveries to Saudi Arabia, which has always been the largest buyer of barley, fell by 75% to 65 thousand tons. Exports to Iran fell by 46% to 51,000 tons,” she said.
Iran also reduced its purchases of Russian corn by 49% to 75.8 tons, but became its largest buyer during this period.
Tyurina also said that the number of companies shipping wheat in September more than halved to 38 from 78 a year ago. The number of ports through which grain and pulses were exported also fell – from 46 a year ago to 43. The port of Novorossiysk traditionally leads in shipments, but volumes were down 5.5% to 1,423,000 tons, compared with 1,506,000 tons a year ago. Raidside’s throughput fell by 11% to 1,214,000 tons from 1,369,000 tons. The ports of Rostov-on-Don shipped 65%, Azov 69% and Astrakhan 24% less abroad than in the previous year. “At the same time, shipments via the port of Taman increased by 10 % to 457 thousand tons and via the port of Vysotsk by 55 % to 85 thousand tons,” says Tyurina.
With regard to the price situation on the market, she referred to the rise in European and American wheat prices. For example, the French wheat price rose by 1.7% from 242 to 246 US dollars per ton over the course of the week. Since the start of the season (from July 1, 2024), the increase amounted to 3.8 %. The price of US wheat rose by 2.5% to USD 248 per tonne over the course of the week, an increase of 10.7% since the start of the season.
The price of Russian wheat (FOB Novorossiysk) fell from USD 219 per tonne to USD 217. On July 1, it cost 236 US dollars per ton. “The discount compared to European grain remains at a good level – USD 29 per tonne. It has increased significantly since the beginning of the season – on July 1 it was 1 US dollar. In principle, this should boost shipment volumes,” says Tjurina.
Wheat prices among producers rose this week by an average of 2.3% to 13,200 per tonne (4th class wheat, excluding VAT). However, they have fallen by 200 roubles since the start of the season. “At the same time, there is a significant price spread between the regions,” says Tyurina. – The maximum price – 15 thousand rubles per ton – is recorded in the Krasnodar region, this week it has increased by 300 rubles. The minimum price in the Samara region is 11,600 rubles per ton, but this week there was also an increase of 350 rubles per ton.
In dollar terms, the average wheat price among growers is $157 per ton, down 8.8% from $172 per ton at the beginning of the season.
“I think that after the rise in prices on the world markets, we can expect similar dynamics on the domestic market, as the demand for Russian wheat is quite high both from exporters and domestic consumers,” concludes Tyurina.