Source: Zerno On-Line (Russia)
Russian wheat export prices remain stable due to continued shipping difficulties and growth on international markets, analysts say. Moreover, market conditions support these elevated price levels.
Russian Wheat Export Prices: Current Levels and Forecasts
According to the IKAR agency, the price of a ton of Russian wheat from the new harvest with a protein content of 12.5% delivered on a free on board (FOB) basis at the end of March in Novorossiysk remained at $233 at the end of last week.
According to IKAR head Dmitry Rylko, the price may go even higher. Furthermore, this outlook considers the weather problems that have arisen for the new harvest in France and the US.
“There are attempts to grow, but we do not see any successful attempts yet,” he noted.
Shipping Challenges and Export Estimates
The situation with shipments from Russian ports remains difficult: stormy weather continues in the Black Sea. Additionally, ice is preventing ships from passing in the Caspian and Baltic Seas. Meanwhile, the situation has improved somewhat in the ice-covered Sea of Azov, where convoys of ships have begun to pass, says Rylko.
IKAR has not yet changed its estimate of wheat exports in February to 3.1-3.2 million tons.
SovEcon sees prices for wheat with 12.5% protein at the end of last week at $232-236 per ton FOB. Consequently, this compares to $231-235 per ton a week earlier.
“Russian offers have come close to CVB (Constanta/Varna/Burgas). Some importers are switching to CVB because of the advantages in freight costs,” SovEcon analysts note in their weekly review.
Analysts also note high demand from exporters in the south due to the expected arrival of ships.
The agency maintains its estimate of wheat exports in February at 3.3 million tons.
According to Rusagrotrans, almost 1.8 million tons of wheat were shipped for export between February 1 and 16.
Export duties on wheat in Russia have remained at zero for seven consecutive weeks, including the week from February 25 to March 3.
Domestic Prices and Crop Conditions
The southern regions of Russia are beginning preparations for the spring sowing campaign.
“No significant weather threats are expected in the coming week. In our opinion, the ice crust on some fields does not pose a serious threat at this stage. It should gradually melt as temperatures rise,” SovEcon analysts noted.
The good condition of winter crops continues to allow analysts to raise their forecasts for the new harvest.
Last week, SovEcon raised its forecast for the wheat harvest in Russia in 2026 by 2.1 million tons to 85.9 million tons.
According to SovEcon, the average price of third-class wheat on the domestic market rose by 50 rubles to 13,575 rubles per ton. Furthermore, fourth-class wheat rose by 25 rubles to 13,225 rubles per ton with self-delivery for the European part of Russia, SovEcon reported.
The average price of sunflower seeds fell by 450 rubles to 36,150 rubles per ton. Additionally, the price of sunflower oil fell by 175 rubles to 94,425 rubles per ton. Meanwhile, the price of soybeans fell by 900 rubles to 28,500 rubles per ton.
According to SovEcon, the export price of sunflower oil fell by $10 to $1,290 per ton FOB. Furthermore, according to IKAR, it fell by $16 to $1,290 per ton.
The export duty on sunflower oil for February is set at 9,495.0 rubles. Consequently, this compares to 9,298.6 rubles for January.
IKAR’s white sugar index for southern Russia rose to $691.54 on February 20 from $686.62 per ton on February 13. Meanwhile, in rubles it remained at 53.0 rubles per kilogram.
