Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
Following India’s removal of all remaining limitations on rice exports, rice prices have seen a decline. The cost of a ton of benchmark white Thai rice decreased from $669 in January 2024 to $405 as of last week, as reported by the Financial Times.
This move to lift restrictions was motivated by India’s aim to enhance agricultural and food exports, thereby increasing farmers’ earnings during a period of economic slowdown in the nation.
Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal announced plans to raise export shipments to $100 billion by the year 2030, up from $48.15 billion recorded in 2023-2024.
“Last year saw the export of approximately $50 billion worth of goods from India,” he stated previously. “I aspire to witness a figure in the triple digits, hitting the $100 billion milestone.”
In 2022, export restrictions were enacted in India, which led to a significant rise in the price of white Thai rice, reaching its peak since 2008.
The country began to relax these restrictions in September of the previous year. According to estimates from S&P Global, India’s rice exports, which amounted to 14 million tons in 2023, could potentially escalate to a record 21.5 million tons between September 2024 and October 2025.
The re-entry of Indian rice into global markets may adversely affect Pakistani exporters, who have managed to increase their market share in Indonesia and East Africa due to the dwindling supply from India.
The US Department of Agriculture projects Pakistan’s rice exports to be only 5.8 million tons for the 12 months ending in May 2025, reflecting an 11.4% decrease compared to the same timeframe the previous year.
In contrast, African nations, as well as producers of feed and ethanol in East Asia, will have the opportunity to procure rice at more affordable prices again.
India stands as a primary supplier of milled rice, which is in significant demand within African countries. The International Food Policy Research Institute indicated that in 2022, Indian rice constituted over 60 percent of the rice imports for 17 African nations, and more than 80 percent for nine of these countries, including Somalia.
