Source: Ukragroconsult (Ukraine)
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projects a 12% drop in Paraguay’s corn exports for the 2025-26 marketing year, bringing shipments down to 2.9 million tons. This decline is attributed to increased domestic demand fueled by ethanol production and animal feed consumption, which will limit the volume available for export.
FAS anticipates domestic corn consumption to hit a record 2.4 million tons, with ethanol demand reaching 1.5 million tons during the same period. The agency highlighted that Paraguay’s bioethanol sector is expanding steadily. Currently, two major ethanol plants operate at full capacity, while a third facility, which is undergoing refurbishment, is expected to resume operations by mid-2025.
When fully operational beginning in 2026, this third plant is projected to utilize around 420,000 to 450,000 tons of corn annually. Nevertheless, FAS notes that corn demand might decrease in the future as the ethanol industry explores the partial replacement of corn with sorghum. Sorghum offers benefits such as greater drought tolerance and lower production costs, although it generally yields less and commands lower market prices than corn.
Regarding production, Paraguay’s corn output for the upcoming marketing year is forecast to remain steady at 5.2 million tons, the same level as in 2024-25. While the total corn-planted area is expected to shrink by 70,000 hectares to 900,000 hectares, improved average yields are anticipated, assuming typical weather patterns.
Corn stock levels for 2025-26 are predicted to be around 250,000 tons, approximately equal to one month’s worth of domestic consumption. This limited inventory reflects a common practice in Paraguay’s corn market, where reduced storage capacity and cash flow needs prompt farmers and traders to lower stockpiles ahead of harvest to accommodate incoming supplies, according to FAS.