Source: Zerno.ru (Russia)
SovEcon has raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2025/26 season by 0.4 million tons to 43.7 million tons. A year earlier, Russia shipped 40.8 million tons of wheat. Despite historically low early-season shipments, [Organization/Entity] raised the export estimate amid good harvest prospects.
Analysts revised the wheat export forecast after increasing the harvest estimate to 85.4 million tons, up from 83.6 million tons in July. A year earlier, Russian farmers harvested 82.6 million tons. The revision of the production estimate was driven by good harvest prospects in the Urals and Siberia.
“Despite the relatively good harvest outlook, we are not ready to raise the estimate more significantly given the sluggish start to the export campaign. According to SovEcon’s estimates, total wheat exports in July and August amounted to 6.1 million tons, compared to 9.9 million tons a year earlier and 8.1 million tons on average over five years. Export figures for September are also expected to be historically low,” the report said.
Major importers have slowed down their purchases of Russian wheat this season. Egypt received 1.1 million tons of wheat in July-August, down from 1.5 million tons the previous year. Algeria received 0.1 million tons, a decrease from 0.5 million tons the year before.
In a few months, importers may start looking at the new harvest from Argentina and Australia, which is looking better. In September, the Australian Department of Agriculture raised its estimate for wheat production in the 2025/26 season to 33.8 million tons from 30.6 million tons in June, which is 22% above the 10-year average. Market participants estimate that Argentina’s wheat harvest could exceed 20 million tons, compared to 18.6 million tons a year earlier.
The ruble exchange rate remains relatively stable despite a sharp drop in energy prices. Since the beginning of August, the ruble has fluctuated around 80 per dollar.
In addition to other problems faced by Russian exporters, FOB prices have been falling recently. From mid- to late August, export prices fell by $7/t to $233/t.
The US Department of Agriculture estimates wheat exports from Russia at 46.0 million tons.