Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
The forecast indicates that the area dedicated to oilseed crops is projected to rise from 19.8 million hectares to nearly 20.4 million hectares. Specifically, the sunflower cultivation is expected to cover 10.85 million hectares (compared to 9.9 million hectares in 2024), while soybean is anticipated to occupy 4.47 million hectares (up from 4.3 million hectares), and rapeseed is projected at 2.96 million hectares (increasing from 2.7 million hectares). This information was released by the Russian Grain Union on January 17.
According to the RZS, the average sunflower yield is projected to be 17.5 centners per hectare (slightly down from 17.6 centners per hectare), leading to a gross harvest of nearly 18.6 million tons, an increase of about 2 million tons compared to the previous year. For soybeans, production could surpass 7.8 million tons (compared to 7 million tons), with estimated yields of 17.7 centners per hectare (up from 16.7 centners per hectare), while rapeseed is projected to yield 5.55 million tons (compared to 4.66 million tons) with an average of 19.1 centners per hectare (decreased from 21.2 centners per hectare), as reported by Agroinvestor’s detailed analysis.
The forecast also suggests that new regions will contribute nearly 2.2 million tons of oilseeds this year, with sunflower accounting for the majority at 2.04 million tons. The potential rapeseed harvest is estimated at 138.4 thousand tons, while soybean production is expected to reach 7.5 thousand tons.
In total, the oilseed harvest may exceed 34 million tons.
Taking into consideration the new regions, the estimated overall harvest of cereals and legumes could achieve 145.2 million tons this year, with an average yield of 30.4 centners per hectare, according to the projected crop sown area structure for the 2025 harvest.
The published document states that the final sown area for this year will be 83.68 million hectares, including the new regions, marking an increase of over 1.1 million hectares from the last year.
The estimated cultivated area for cereals and legumes stands at 47.9 million hectares, although it is projected to be 46 million hectares in 2024, based on Rosstat’s figures, which do not include the new regions. Within this area, more than 29.9 million hectares will be dedicated to wheat (28.5 million hectares), approximately 7.5 million hectares to barley (6.9 million hectares), and around 2.7 million hectares to corn, consistent with last year’s figures. The new regions are expected to yield 6.4 million tons, broken down into 5.08 million tons of wheat, 867,500 tons of barley, and 336,100 tons of corn. The average wheat yield is projected to be 31.5 centners per hectare, compared to 29.3 centners per hectare in 2024, yielding a potential gross total of 94.3 million tons (down from 82.4 million tons). For barley, the anticipated harvest could reach 19.5 million tons (16.7 million tons) with a yield of approximately 26 centners per hectare (24.6 centners). Corn production is estimated at 16 million tons (13.2 million tons) with a yield of 60.6 centners per hectare (51.2 centners).
Last year saw around 125 million tons of grain harvested, based on preliminary Rosstat data and excluding the new regions, with an average yield of 27.7 centners per hectare. The Ministry of Agriculture has yet to release an official harvest forecast for the current year.
