Source: Zerno.ru (Russia)
Russia shipped 68.4 million tons of grain for export in the past agricultural year (July 2023 – June 2024), including 55.9 million tons of wheat, according to the monitoring of the Russian Grain Union. “These are preliminary results. According to our estimate, 68.4 million tons of the main types of grain were shipped during the season. The Union’s forecast was 67 million tons. Wheat shipments amounted to 55.9 million tons, we had expected 55 million tons,” Elena Tyurina, head of the association’s analytical department, told Interfax.
In the 2022/2023 harvest year, grain exports will amount to 60 million tons, including 47 million tons of wheat.
According to Tyurina, barley exports rose to a record 6.9 million tons compared to around 5 million tons last season. Corn shipments rose to 5.3 million tons compared to 4.3 million tons.
Regarding exports in June, Tyurina said they fell by 6.7% to 5.053 million tons. At the same time, wheat deliveries were in line with June 2023 – 4.342 million tons. Barley exports fell by 26% to 385,000 tons, while corn exports fell by 41% to 325,000 tons.
Egypt became the main buyer of wheat in June. “After the decline in supplies to this country, which was observed from December to April, in June they exceeded the level of June 2023 by 9.3% and amounted to just over 1 million tons, in June last year it was 916 thousand tons”, – said Tyurina. Turkey is in second place, but deliveries to this country, which have been declining all season, fell by 60% to 383,000 tons. At the same time, exports to Saudi Arabia doubled to 361,000 tons.
Deliveries to Algeria were brisk – 345,000 tons compared to 112,500 tons in June last year. Other major buyers include Yemen (up almost two-fold to 144,000 tons), Mozambique (up almost ten-fold to 104,000 tons) and Nigeria (up 2.7-fold to 100,000 tons).
“As far as Russian barley purchases are concerned, Saudi Arabia is traditionally the leader with 162,000 tons in June. However, this is 12% less than in the previous year,” says the expert. Iran also reduced its purchases by 55% and delivered 54.5 thousand tons. In addition, barley was delivered to Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Libya and Oman last month, while there were no deliveries to these countries a year ago.
“Among the buyers of Russian corn, Iran has been the leader for a month in a row, but at the same time deliveries decreased by 16% compared to June last season and amounted to 195 thousand tons. The second buyer was Turkey – 130 thousand tons, it is a third less than last year,” – said Tyurina.
According to her data, wheat was shipped by 45 export companies in June, compared to 74 last season, while cereals and grain legumes were shipped through 40 ports, compared to 48 last year. Traditionally, the port of Novorossiysk was the largest, with shipments increasing by 22.8% to 1 million 987,000 tons. The raid throughput fell by 23.2% to just over 1 million tons. “Transshipments in Rostov-on-Don fell sharply by 35% to 403,500 tons and in Azov by 70% to 215,700 tons. Transshipments via Astrakhan fell by 12% to 195 thousand tons, but at the same time shipments via the new port of Vysotsky increased 3.8 times to 116 thousand tons,” said Tyurina.
Regarding the price situation on the market, she said that prices indicate strong competition. French wheat prices fell $2 this week to $237 per ton, U.S. wheat fell $5 to $224, Russian wheat (FOB Novorossiysk) fell $1 to $236 per ton. “Our discount to European wheat remains at a minimal level – only $1 per ton. The world market is under pressure from the low prices for Romanian, Bulgarian and Ukrainian grain,” says the expert. – In addition, demand from major exporters, such as Egypt, is increasing. The factor that could lead to a price reduction is the arrival of the new harvest on the market, when prices traditionally fall”.
Tyurina also reported that wheat producers’ prices this week fell by an average of 200 rubles per ton in the south, 280 rubles in the center and 100 rubles in the Volga region. The average price of wheat (4th grade, excluding VAT) was 13,300-13,400 Br per ton. At the same time, prices increased by 21.8% compared to the beginning of last season to 14,700 rubles per ton (including VAT). “The situation is self-correcting, prices are rising in anticipation of a decline in the gross harvest. This is the most important factor,” the expert concluded.