Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
Old-school meteorologists, sociologists and economists have long believed that the solar cycle has an enormous impact on human activity and the general health of all living things. Proving this is much more difficult. There are many studies showing the relationship between sunspot numbers and overall solar activity with events on Earth.
World Weather, Inc. has for years used the 11-year and 22-year solar cycle as a leading tool for predicting general weather events in its long-term forecasts, and now that the Sun is at the peak of its activity, World Grain proposes to evaluate its potential impact on the planet from a weather perspective.
The solar cycle is a term for the cyclical nature of solar activity. The solar cycle begins when there are a minimum number of sunspots over the surface of the Sun, which appear due to changes in the magnetic field and cause small pockets of less intense heat radiating from the Sun. The cycle begins with sunspots appearing very infrequently, and for a period of time there may be none at all, and solar flares become suppressed and few in number. There is usually a steady increase in sunspot numbers for five to six years after the solar minimum. The peak of the solar cycle occurs when sunspot numbers reach a maximum and flares and eruptions on the surface of the Sun occur frequently and with great intensity.
World Weather, Inc. demonstrates the correlation of trends in the occurrence of La Niña weather events between solar minimums and solar maximums. This is the period when droughts are most likely to occur at mid-latitudes around the world. The recent solar minimum occurred in 2020, and a multi-year La Niña developed and dominated the 2020-23 period. Prolonged La Niña reduced precipitation at mid-latitudes, resulting in lower humidity and significantly higher temperature extremes.
A solar maximum is usually followed by another five to six years of decreasing solar activity, resulting in a total time period from solar minimum to maximum and back to the next minimum of 10-12 years, or what is commonly referred to as an “11-year” cycle.
There is also a tendency for every other 11-year solar cycle to produce more severe weather anomalies around the world. The early 2020s were part of this 22-year cycle, and the weather anomalies observed around the world were more severe than at any other time during any of the solar cycles, a trend that can be found in the weather records. The 1930s, 1950s, late 1970s, 1998-2002 and recently 2020-23 were periods of extreme weather associated with the 22-year solar cycle.
Scientists believe that the Sun has recently reached its peak of activity. The current cycle may have peaked in August 2024. If so, we can make a few weather estimates for 2025: winters in North America that follow a solar maximum tend to be colder and spring warmer. The current cooling trend in North America certainly fits into this formula.
Since 1960, there has also been a tendency for corn and soybean futures prices to rise the year after a solar maximum, including this can be seen in 2025. In most cases, monthly futures prices were the same or slightly higher one year after the growing season, which is during the solar maximum period.
It follows that futures prices in September this year will be the same or slightly higher than in September 2024 – at least the solar cycle says so.