Source: Zerno On-Line (Russia)
IGC global grain exports forecast shows the International Grains Council has slightly lowered its estimate for global grain production in the 2025/2026 season by 1 million tons to 2,460.1 million tons. Moreover, despite the correction, the figure remains at a record high. This was reported by the Zerno On-Line agency.
IGC Global Grain Exports Forecast: Production Adjustments and Trade Growth
The reduction is due to a revision of barley data. Furthermore, changes for other crops were insignificant and practically offset each other.
Meanwhile, the estimate for grain harvest in Russia has been raised from 126.5 million tons to 126.8 million tons (117.0 million tons last year).
The forecast for global grain trade has been increased by 3 million tons to 449 million tons. Consequently, Russia may export 72.8 million tons of grain, which is 0.8 million tons more than the previous forecast and 3.5 million tons more than last season.
Pea Production Surge and Market Outlook
Due to increased plantings in key exporting countries in the 2025/2026 season, global pea production rose to 17.6 million tons. Additionally, this represents a 19.8% increase from last season. Given the availability of sufficient resources, total utilization is projected to increase. Meanwhile, significant stockpiling is likely to occur mainly in exporting countries. Pea trade is expected to grow significantly in 2026 thanks to Asian buyers. However, it will still fall short of past peaks. Global pea exports for the 2025/2026 season are estimated at 6.0 million tons (5.1 million tons last season).
Future Season Outlook for Wheat, Corn and Barley
The outlook for global wheat supply and demand next season appears somewhat tighter. Furthermore, analysts expect lower production and further consumption growth. Given initial assumptions about planting areas, corn production may also decline next season. While barley planting areas may be below average due to relatively weak margins, global production of this crop is likely to be similar to the 2025/2026 season.
