Source: APKinform (Ukraine)
In their September report, IGC analysts lowered their forecast for global wheat production in the 2024/25 marketing year by 1 million tons to 798 million tons (795 million tons in the 2023/24 marketing year).
The downward revisions mainly affected the EU, from 124.8 million tons in the previous month to 122.4 million tons (previously 133.1 million tons), which was partially offset by an improvement in the forecast for Australia from 30.1 million tons to 31.8 million tons (previously 26 million tons).
At the same time, the forecast for global grain exports in the 2024/25 marketing year is raised to 197.8 (196.5; 214.7) million tons, also at the expense of Australia – to 24.5 (21.5; 20.5) million tons, Ukraine – to 16.2 (15; 19) million tons, while for the EU it is lowered to 29 (32.4; 37.9) million tons.
The forecast for global wheat ending stocks was raised to 267 (266; 272.2) million tons: for the EU to 12.1 (11.8; 18.1) million tons, for Canada to 4.7 (2.3; 4.6) million tons and for Kazakhstan to 3.6 (2.9; 2.6) million tons, while for Ukraine it was lowered to 0.7 (1.2; 0.9) million tons and for Australia to 2.9 (3.8; 3) million tons.
The analysts also revised the forecast for global maize production in the 2024/25 marketing year downwards to 1.224 (1.225; 1.227) billion tons at the expense of the EU to 59.8 (61.4; 62) million tons, while it was lowered to 385.7 (384.7; 389.7) million tons for the USA.
The forecast for global corn exports in the 2024/25 marketing year is raised to 181.4 (180.6; 194.9) million tons, while the forecast for Argentina is raised to 35 (34; 35) million tons.
The forecast for global final grain stocks in the new season is lowered to 275.5 (277.2; 281.4) million tons, which is due to corresponding adjustments for China to 177.6 (178.6; 180.3) million tons, the USA to 50.8 (51.1; 46) million tons and Brazil to 4 (4.5; 4) million tons.