Source: Oleoscope (Russia)
At the end of the season, the total export of grains is expected at the level of 47-48 million tons, of which about 41 million tons will be wheat. This was reported to journalists by Arkady Zlochevsky, president of the Russian Grain Union.
“We are lowering the export forecast. Based on the current situation, we will not be able to fulfill what we talked about in summer – 52 million tons. We are reducing below 50 million tons – somewhere 47-48 million tons will be the total export, of which 41-42 million tons will be wheat at most,” Zlochevsky said at a press conference in Moscow on Tuesday.
According to him, January exports have already fallen by half compared to last year. There has always been a drop in January, “but never twice,” he noted.
In his opinion, exports are negatively affected by export duties, which led to the expansion of wheat production in other countries, which reduced the attractiveness of Russian grain purchases on the world market. In the current situation there is a risk of losing the position of the leader in the world wheat market, the president of the Russian Grain Union believes.
“Such a price “chocolate”, which we arranged in the world market, led to an increase in wheat sowing in the world. And it boomeranged back – pressure on prices. The world added 1.5% of wheat area. And as a result, we are faced with the fact that the world can live without our wheat. In 2021, it could not live without it at all. But now it can.”
World prices have stopped reacting to such a factor as lower export forecasts from Russia, he notes. “Experts, including the USDA, give a reduction (of the forecast), and the price does not rise – no one reacts to this factor, because it is no longer a problem. In 2021, it was a problem. This is what we have achieved: we have strategically laid a bomb under our own positions in the world market,” said the head of the Grain Union.
