Source: Zerno.ru (Russia)
SovEcon has raised its forecast for Russian wheat production in 2025 by 1.1 million tons to 87.2 million tons. Analysts expect the figure to be significantly higher than last year’s 82.6 million tons and close to the long-term average of 88.3 million tons. Record yields in Siberia and the Urals prompted a revision of the forecast.
Estimators raised the wheat production estimate in Siberia by 1.1 million tons, bringing it to 9.7 million tons. They also raised the estimate in the Urals by 0.3 million tons, bringing it to 4.1 million tons. Record final yields are expected in both regions.
For the second year in a row, wheat harvesting in the Urals and Siberia is slower than average due to heavy rainfall, but this year’s yields in the regions are record-breaking due to favorable weather conditions throughout most of the season.
Forecasts predict mostly dry weather for most of Russia in the next two weeks. Against this backdrop, harvesting in the Urals and Siberia may accelerate.
At the same time, the outlook for the harvest in the European part of Russia has deteriorated somewhat. Wheat production in the Central region is now forecast at 21.3 million tons, a reduction of 0.3 million tons. Yields in the region began to decline towards the end of the harvest, probably due to heavy rains.
“The gradual increase in the harvest forecast for Russia in recent weeks has been one of the key bearish stories for the global wheat market. However, a significant part of this improvement is attributable to the Asian part of the country, from where wheat delivery to ports is expensive and time-consuming — more than 2,000 km from the Urals to the Azov ports and over 3,000 km from Western Siberia,” analysts note.
